Glad to hear the ONS, on #MoreOrLess, pick up on this allegation I saw tweeted out yesterday that the DHSC death data “was discredited” because it counted deaths that were more than 28 days later. Yet they are reluctant to quote the higher ONS COVID death data number.

ONS says 1/ the understanding and therefore the death data on Covid are incomplete but the medical understanding is becoming clearer, not least about longer term patients who die 60 days later .

2/. The DHSC plan is to disclose death data following a positive test a/ within 28 days b/ within 60 days and c/ any death following a positive test.

3/. The idea that any death that follows more than 28 days after a positive test should be disregarded self evidently flies in the face of already known fact.

Whilst most admitted to hospital either die or recover sufficient to be discharged within 28 days there are cases that remain hospitalised for months. Indeed the Scottish pilot in Vietnam was on a ventilator following a severe Covid attack for 72 days.

If he died on the 70th day should his death be disregarded?

Of course it should not.

I can tell you, for instance, that there is nothing unusual to have several contributory causes of death on death certificates. If Covid is a contributory factor it should be there.

Carl Henegen’s suggestion last week that there had been no increase in positivity rate was challenged too.

He has made the error the Gov presentation of stats encourages.

The Gov, in its daily stats, gives data on tests processed not people tested.

More tests are processed than people tested But TT data DOES provide the data on people tested if you dig around.

It DOES show a slow but steady increase in positivity rate. So it isn’t, as Carl Henegen suggested, simply more positives because more people have been tested.

This is not to say we are seeing a second wave. But we are seeing a trend that has become more marked as restrictions have been relaxed and the cause for concern is that this is when plenty of social activity is outside, schools and Universities shut, much home working extended

So when September comes and schools, Universities, and more people return to offices and when cold, inclement weather force people indoors, the response need to be precise, swift and vigorous if we are to prevent a repeat of March/ April.

The virus, as we know, can get out of control very quickly once it has got a grip, if interventions are not effective.

We are in a BETTER position than we were in March in terms of testing and even slightly better re tracing, but that needs much improved performance.

The intention to increase staff supporting engagement by local public health teams should help.

But if support for and monitoring of isolation is not taken MUCH more seriously than at present all the testing in the world will not stop a fast increase in positives.

At present the increase in positivity is being driven by the under 50s with a 40% increase in positives in infants (under 5s) and a 35% increase in the 15- 44 age group.

It is likely only a matter of time before this shifts into the older and more susceptible age group.

That is where the inflection point occurs and hospital admissions increase and deaths.

This is a novel virus and local conditions result in some variations in speed and spread.

I think we will find out in September where our inflection is.

In fact today Carl Henegen AGAIN referred to tests processed not people tested data
It is frustrating that the test data is so scattered across databases & inconsistent.

People tested should be the key measure (hint - they are fewer than tests processed)

https://twitter.com/jneill/status/1291367466606755840?s=21 https://twitter.com/jneill/status/1291367466606755840

And this rather caustic but on point response to the “run over by a bus” suggestion.

In fact road accidents death during Covid season

https://twitter.com/vandyke4ad/status/1284415938851491840?s=21 https://twitter.com/vandyke4ad/status/1284415938851491840