Please ignore the media who are shouting about the -20% contraction. This was fully expected due to the shape of the British economy. Also we also turned off the economy later than many and therefore turned it back on later still. This all feeds into quarterly stats.

At this stage what is more important is the size and speed of the recovery.

GDP surged roughly +8% in June. Can it be sustained - we will see. Certainly every business I speak to is flat out as pent up demand is released.

So far so good.

Furthermore the shape and state of the economy will likely define what happens in the future.

With most demand coming from the domestic economy and with more fiscal and monetary levers it is far easier for the UK to push growth higher if necessary.

We will like everyone have high unemployment - you can't wish this away. The economy can't take a hit and not expect massive job losses.

Hopefully with a relatively flexible employment system it will bounce back quickly.

Fast down and fast up.

If we are lucky at an aggregate level. Most of these jobs will be focused on the service sector which tends to create jobs much faster than other areas.

So sadly many will lose their jobs - but hopefully will get new ones ASAP as the sector recovers.

You can safely ignore those who say:

"Oh but everything has changed" {dramatic pause}

It really hasn't, humans are very predictable and actually generally want to live and love in the same ways.

We will still want to eat, drink, consume and travel.

It will simply take us time to get back to all our old ways - both good and bad.

Look at how quickly society has woken up from lockdown!

From abandoned streets to busy pubs in but a few months.

The cities will take time as people have realised that there are many disadvantges and advantages to them.

London will live on but it will probably change shape - Good!

Cities are the most human of creations - complex and dynamic.

Even at 40 I have lived the changes.

Will everything stay the same - no.

We will probably save more - Good.

Appreciate family and friends more - Good.

Appreciate nature much more - Good.

Rant about the future even more - Bad.

That is life - it is ever changing and complex.

Finally the big question:

"Will there be a second wave Dan?"

Everyone has a view - personally I think you are simply seeing the minor outbreaks from artificially suppressing the virus. Many have had it and in many places we are at herd immunity.

So we might get regional outbreaks but these in my view are likely to be small and easily containable.

Will than impact growth and the economy - Yes!

No way around that but overall we will stagger forward in generally a positive direction.

In fact with the leveling up agenda, deglobalisation due to the virus and geopolitical tension and simply more wanting to buy stuff where they know it is from we may see much stronger growth in the regions than in the SE of England.

This is whole positive.

Ignore the media.

They had their chance and blew it.

Think positively, spend wisely but generously and be blessed you live in such a great country - and push for positive change.

Time politicians stopped bickering and started listening.

You can follow @danieljohnsalt.
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