Read on Twitter
The dilemma that many a thicko on here are facing today.
They will still be hypocritical though because they just want virtue points with no coherence or continuity to their line of thought.
Sad!
They will still be hypocritical though because they just want virtue points with no coherence or continuity to their line of thought.
Sad!
I guarantee that there will be multiple tweets referring to inequality surrounding this GDP measure.
The problem is, there are multiple tweets and beliefs that lockdown was/is essential to protect the underprivileged.
Both can't be true.
The problem is, there are multiple tweets and beliefs that lockdown was/is essential to protect the underprivileged.
Both can't be true.
The funniest thing is that reflections on this from certain Twitter factions (leftist adult-baby r*t*rds) will complain about GDP growth whilst still hating the economy we live in.
We wouldn't have had a largish decline in GDP growth without businesses.
We wouldn't have had a largish decline in GDP growth without businesses.
But this large decline comes with many caveats.
Firstly, this 'recession' was due to an exogenous shock - it's not as if it was caused by financial contagion/system melt down.
Banks are still liquid.
Firstly, this 'recession' was due to an exogenous shock - it's not as if it was caused by financial contagion/system melt down.
Banks are still liquid.
It's these liquidity events that really become testing - see 2008 and the hangover from that.
Central banks and governments have heavily liquified the system by fiscal and monetary means.
Whether that's good or not in the mid-long run remains to be seen, but for now, it's OK.
Central banks and governments have heavily liquified the system by fiscal and monetary means.
Whether that's good or not in the mid-long run remains to be seen, but for now, it's OK.
What you might expect to happen during a real recession hasn't actually happened yet.
Housing; housing is buoyant as shit.
The market is up according to Rightmove data.
The average ask in July hit a record high.
Yeah - really tough times.
Housing; housing is buoyant as shit.
The market is up according to Rightmove data.
The average ask in July hit a record high.
Yeah - really tough times.
'Unprecedented' is a shitty, despicable word to use because I've heard it so much, but it really is a good descriptor of the furlough scheme and government support.
Because what has happened is that people have arguably become temporarily better off...
WHAT?
Because what has happened is that people have arguably become temporarily better off...
WHAT?
Here's the UK personal savings rate...
People have been increasing savings drastically - yes this happens during recessions as consumer spending goes down, but past recessions haven't had the same income support as this one.
People have been increasing savings drastically - yes this happens during recessions as consumer spending goes down, but past recessions haven't had the same income support as this one.
How is it different this time?
Well, government are essentially being paid to borrow, and bond investors don't care.
UK 5y gilt yield is at -0.06%.
Rishi can go and do as he wants, and there's likely going to be more QE on the horizon, leading to an even lower yield!
Well, government are essentially being paid to borrow, and bond investors don't care.
UK 5y gilt yield is at -0.06%.
Rishi can go and do as he wants, and there's likely going to be more QE on the horizon, leading to an even lower yield!
In my view, the largest risk is in the recovery.
There's a lot to be said for recessions leading to Schumpeterian Creative Destruction - a weeding out of weak businesses...
But the UK has a big issue - there's a serious skills mismatch here with an 'overeducated' population.
There's a lot to be said for recessions leading to Schumpeterian Creative Destruction - a weeding out of weak businesses...
But the UK has a big issue - there's a serious skills mismatch here with an 'overeducated' population.
See here.
The UK has one of the largest skills mismatches in the world.
For me then, key to coming out of this over the next few years is the extent to which retraining can occur and or whether we see a big rise in zombie firms.
The UK has one of the largest skills mismatches in the world.
For me then, key to coming out of this over the next few years is the extent to which retraining can occur and or whether we see a big rise in zombie firms.
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As @MrMBrown just said, I expect the same people to be ecstatic about next quarter's epic rise in GDP.
I somehow doubt they will be though.
I somehow doubt they will be though.
