Construction output in 2020 Q2 was 35.0% lower than in Q1 & 36.4% lower than a year ago. Output also declined 1.7% in Q1 so consecutive quarterly declines & construction recession, the sharpest construction recession on record BUT...
#ukconstruction
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/constructionindustry/bulletins/constructionoutputingreatbritain/june2020newordersandconstructionoutputpriceindicesapriltojune2020
... it is important to look at monthly output to see the profile as the falls were clearly in March & particularly April when the social distancing restrictions were fully in place nationally whilst output rose in May as restrictions eased & in June...
#ukconstruction
... Construction output in June was 23.5% higher than May (which itself was 7.6% higher than in April) but was still 24.8% lower than in June 2019 given the extent of the falls in March & particularly April...
#ukconstruction
... but note since March the ONS has a low response rate to its construction output survey (understandably given furloughs & firms shutting down temporarily) & so is likely to suffer from survivor bias for the period March to date...
#ukconstruction
... which means that the ONS construction output survey is likely to be overestimating the output level since March (underestimating the fall in output in March & April & also overestimating the growth from May onwards)...
#ukconstruction
... Looking at the sector breakdown of the 23.5% rise in June 2020's construction output, the highest rates of growth have been in private housing repair, maintenance & improvement (rm&i) as well as private & public housing sectors...
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
You can follow @NobleFrancis.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: