It is surprisingly hard to make money fixing horse races betting in traditional pools. But the criminals at Kanazawa put on a masterclass yesterday in race 8. They got their しのぎ (hustle) on. As かたぎ (commoners) let's take a look at how the Yakuza set up a perfect race: 1/n

The first item to note is that the same owner (red) has four horses in the same race. One horse went off at 5.0; the others were >100. From Beyers/form, the win odds make sense. The 5 main contenders would all be expected to run around 50 on past form, the others ~30.

A ridiculous race to begin with as you are talking about a two second difference but not that rare at this level. I mean, this race pays 3k to the winner. So what you have is a race where the 7 horse is very likely going to finish top 3 due to weak opposition.

Indeed the 7 was at 5.0 to win and ~1.3 to show. After vig that would suggest it was about a 2-1 favorite to finish in the top 3. Yet it was not in the top three trio combos. Instead, the other contenders ex the 7 closed at impossibly low odds:

The payouts on top combinations other than the 7 are about 60% of what you would theoretically expect given the other odds in the pool. Trifecta was also hit although not quite as hard. Why target those pools? One, trio/trifecta gets more action in Japan, 2-4x the other pools.

Trio is especially good for fixing, because medium-strength horses like the 7 here can have say 65% equity in the top 3; if you know it loses, you gain that entire 65%. Plenty to overcome the 25% track take and your own bets' influence on the odds.

Trifecta is not as good for this. For example, if you know this 5.0 horse will not win (6.0 after vig or 1/6=16.6% theoretical win chance) you can bet all the other horses in the one spot. But that 16.6% gain still would not be good enough to overcome the house take.

The effect is similar in the second and third slots. A horse might be 65% to be in the top 3, but that means they would only be say 16/22/27% to finish 1/2/3. This means you need a horse that should be very strong (but is going to lose today obv) to fix the win spot.

It is hard to build up a horse to where it should be a big favorite (to legitimate bettors) given how class matchups work at these tracks. It is much easier to set up a race like this where your horse is a big favorite to make the top 3 due to the very weak field.

The hopeless long-shot entries were no doubt part of setting up such a scenario. 10 horses is a full gate at this track; by blocking other contenders from entering they improved the odds share on the horse they have chosen to take a dive.

This race also had the highest betting volumes of the day despite being a lowish-class race with only five contenders and the 11th race being a rewards point multiplier race at one of the major Japanese ADWs, which usually get huge action. Another red flag.

It should go without saying that the 7 finished way up the track, running the worst race of his life by 20 lengths or so. And classy work by the jockey. After the bad break, head straight for the bad rail which every other horse on the track avoided.

As such there was no need to even strangle the horse. This jockey is one of the leaders at the track, but has been involved in several similar races recently. The horse also ran its usual strong final fraction suggesting there was nothing wrong with the fitness of the horse.

In other words, a textbook case on everything to look for when looking to spot fixing. Entries in the race that don't make sense. Unusual betting patterns that only make sense if the race isn't clean. Obviously bad strategy by an experienced leading jockey.

Post-covid we will see a lot more stuff like this, not just in Japanese horse racing which I know no one gives a shit about, but in sports as well IMO. People are desperate. And of course, some of the "fixed" games might be clean; don't be a rigtard.