5 days ago, I tweeted that COVID trends in Texas were concerning

Over past few days, data from TX has gone from bad to worse

And I don't understand. Why is testing falling off a cliff?

But the big picture here is this:

Texas is in trouble and has to turn things around

Here are the key numbers for TX (based on 7 day moving avg) -- now vs 2 weeks ago

# of tests down 50% (60K to 30K)
Cases largely flat (around 7K)

Percent positive way up: 24%. A crazy high number

And http://Rt.live  has the Rt of TX at 1.13 (3rd highest in nation)

http://covid19-projections.com  models that TX actually has 10X more cases than identified: 70K cases a day.

Another words -- they are missing 90% of the cases

Yet, talk now is restarting schools, sports (especially football)

Can't really do these w/out new control measures

If TX wants to lower virus levels

1. Enforced mask mandate
2. keep bars closed. Stop indoor gatherings
3. Hold on school decisions until outbreak under control
4. Fix testing so more rapid turn-around testing available

Final thoughts:

Texas in uncharted territory

1. Dramatic fall off in testing
2. Cases stable
3. Spiking % of positive tests

My suspicion is that over the next week to two, hospitalizations will rise again and deaths will soon follow

We could wait. We shouldn't. Act now

You can follow @ashishkjha.
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