As we move towards the peak of the Hurricane Season, I thought I'd give my two amateur cents on what we might expect with regards to VP anomalies. From the image, we can see the next 6 weeks but just an FYI the accuracy decreases past week 3/4 as chaos theory takes hold. 1/
A basic diagram of the MJO shows that convective phase of the MJO, you'll have ULL divergence and LL convergence which typically is a large influence in cyclogenesis. In the suppressive phase, the conditions are reversed leading to less favourable conditions.
In addition to causing increased favourable divergence/convergence. Just to the west of the MJO convective phase, shear will be lessened as trade winds decrease for a short time and the ULL divergence vectors will be favourable. 3/
Going back to current conditions, we can see that by late month into early next month we can see -VP anomalies, (Favourable conditions) moving into the NATL basin. Currently, we are in an unfavourable region but that doesn't mean storms can't form; TD11 formed earlier today. 4/
Comparing what we might see this year to other (hyper)active years paints a pretty similar picture. A double maxima pattern can be seen. The initial max in the EPAC that weakens slightly moving over the Carib and CA before restrengthening off of Africa. 5/