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// (LONG) THREAD \\ Projecting Nick Chubb in Kevin Stefanski’s offense.
Nick Chubb is a severely underrated running back. Entering his third year, he is coming off a RB8 finish despite his place in an anemic offense and sharing the backfield with Kareem Hunt from weeks 10-17.
Nick Chubb is a severely underrated running back. Entering his third year, he is coming off a RB8 finish despite his place in an anemic offense and sharing the backfield with Kareem Hunt from weeks 10-17.
Majority of FF analysts are saying to avoid Nick Chubb. There’s a risk that he splits significant work with Kareem Hunt. According to FantasyPros ADP, Chubb is being taken as RB11, to which most say “Pass - too much risk”, despite that this is a totally new coaching staff.
Ask any Browns fan - Freddie Kitchens was not a good Head Coach, and even worse play caller. The Browns scored only 1.84 points per drive, and finished 22nd in points per game. The red zone play calling was abysmal. Despite this, Chubb still had 1494 rush yds ( #2) and 8 TDs.
In comparison, Kevin Stefanski led MIN to 11th in PPG, 10th in red zone scoring %, and 2.30 points per drive. He elevated Dalvin Cook to a RB6 finish with a 20.9 avg fantasy points per game (2018 Dalvin: 13.8).
Nick Chubb 2019: RB8 (16.0 FF ppg).
Let’s compare the two.
Nick Chubb 2019: RB8 (16.0 FF ppg).
Let’s compare the two.
2019 Dalvin: 14 games - 292.4 pts
250 att - 1135 RuYds - 13 TDs
63 Tgt - 53 rec - 519 RecYds
4.5 ypc, 9.8 y/r, 84% CatchRate
2019 Chubb: 16 games - 255.2 pts
298 att - 1494 RuYds - 8 TDs
49 Tgt - 36 rec - 278 RecYds
5.0 ypc, 7.7 y/r, 73% CatchRate
250 att - 1135 RuYds - 13 TDs
63 Tgt - 53 rec - 519 RecYds
4.5 ypc, 9.8 y/r, 84% CatchRate
2019 Chubb: 16 games - 255.2 pts
298 att - 1494 RuYds - 8 TDs
49 Tgt - 36 rec - 278 RecYds
5.0 ypc, 7.7 y/r, 73% CatchRate
Red Zone Usage: Inside the 5 YdLn
2019
Dalvin 15 carries, 9 TDs (60% success rt)
Chubb 15 carries, 2 TDs (13%)
MIN ‘19 Red Zone Looks:
QB: 61 RB: 101 Total: 204
RB = 49.5% of looks inside 20
CLE ‘19 RZ Looks:
QB: 84 RB: 70 Total: 221
RB = 31.7% of looks inside 20
2019
Dalvin 15 carries, 9 TDs (60% success rt)
Chubb 15 carries, 2 TDs (13%)
MIN ‘19 Red Zone Looks:
QB: 61 RB: 101 Total: 204
RB = 49.5% of looks inside 20
CLE ‘19 RZ Looks:
QB: 84 RB: 70 Total: 221
RB = 31.7% of looks inside 20
PFF Offensive Line Grades:
“Well Dalvin must have had a much better OL!”
2019 MIN OL - 19th
2019 CLE OL - 23rd
Stefanski’s play calling set Dalvin up for success in the red zone, leading to more TDs. Kitchens... well... I feel bad for what Kitchens did to Nick Chubb.
“Well Dalvin must have had a much better OL!”
2019 MIN OL - 19th
2019 CLE OL - 23rd
Stefanski’s play calling set Dalvin up for success in the red zone, leading to more TDs. Kitchens... well... I feel bad for what Kitchens did to Nick Chubb.
2020 CLE OL Outlook?
PFF grade: 6th.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👀" title="Augen" aria-label="Emoji: Augen">
Upgrades:
RT Jack Conklin ( #11 Run Blocking T)
LT Jedrick Wills (6th best run block grade in FBS in 2019 at 90.5).
Joel Bitonio and JC Tretter ranked inside #13 at LG/C. RG is still a question mark with Wyatt Teller.
PFF grade: 6th.
Upgrades:
RT Jack Conklin ( #11 Run Blocking T)
LT Jedrick Wills (6th best run block grade in FBS in 2019 at 90.5).
Joel Bitonio and JC Tretter ranked inside #13 at LG/C. RG is still a question mark with Wyatt Teller.
Chubb averaged 5.0 ypc behind the 23rd ranked OL, in large part due to achieving 2.27 ypc AFTER contact ( #2 behind DHenry). He also finished #2 in RB Broken Tackles with 66 total.
Imagine what he can do with the #6 ranked OL and a Wide Zone run scheme that fits his skillset.
Imagine what he can do with the #6 ranked OL and a Wide Zone run scheme that fits his skillset.
We know how good Chubb is. We know Stefanski favors the run (~29 rush attempts/game). What we don’t know is, how will Kareem Hunt affect Chubb’s role?
Rumors have swirled that Hunt will work in as a WR3/slot role, as well as work in occasionally at RB. Let’s take a look at MIN..
Rumors have swirled that Hunt will work in as a WR3/slot role, as well as work in occasionally at RB. Let’s take a look at MIN..
2019 Personnel groupings under Stefanski:
11: 25% (266) [1 RB, 1 TE = 3 WR]
12: 34% (363) [1 RB, 2 TE = 2 WR]
21: 21% (230) [2 RB..]
22: 11% (118)
KStef used 2 RBs 2nd most (SF #1). Odds are that Chubb/Hunt will be on the field at the same time, though with Hunt motioned out.
11: 25% (266) [1 RB, 1 TE = 3 WR]
12: 34% (363) [1 RB, 2 TE = 2 WR]
21: 21% (230) [2 RB..]
22: 11% (118)
KStef used 2 RBs 2nd most (SF #1). Odds are that Chubb/Hunt will be on the field at the same time, though with Hunt motioned out.
For 2020 projections, I used KStef avg of 29 rush att/game (464 pace) and 27.75 pass att/game (444) per MIN 2019 play calling. Target % breakdown for MIN RB was:
RB1 Dalvin: 14%
RB2 Abdullah: 4.7%
FB Ham: 5.8%
WR3 Bisi: 10.1%
Projections will consider Hunt, Chubb & Janovich
RB1 Dalvin: 14%
RB2 Abdullah: 4.7%
FB Ham: 5.8%
WR3 Bisi: 10.1%
Projections will consider Hunt, Chubb & Janovich
CLE: Projecting KHUNT (RB2/WR3 utility role) for:
~35-40% of rush attempts [~185 total]
~17% Target Share [~75 total]
I project Chubb to handle 65-70% of red zone/goal line work.
Chubb target share: ~8%
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚨" title="Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht" aria-label="Emoji: Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht"> 2019 CLE Red Zone Looks: Inside 20
Chubb 50 attempts
Hunt 4 attempts
~35-40% of rush attempts [~185 total]
~17% Target Share [~75 total]
I project Chubb to handle 65-70% of red zone/goal line work.
Chubb target share: ~8%
Chubb 50 attempts
Hunt 4 attempts
2020 Nick Chubb: Proj FLOOR
55% carries, 8% Tgt share, 5.0 ypc, 71% catch rate, 7.6 y/r
255 rush - 1276 - 10 TDs
37 Tgt - 26 rec - 201 RecYds
I would be surprised if Chubb’s floor isn’t 10 TDs with 1200+ yards in this new scheme. His red zone success% should increase whttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend"> opp.
55% carries, 8% Tgt share, 5.0 ypc, 71% catch rate, 7.6 y/r
255 rush - 1276 - 10 TDs
37 Tgt - 26 rec - 201 RecYds
I would be surprised if Chubb’s floor isn’t 10 TDs with 1200+ yards in this new scheme. His red zone success% should increase w
2020 Nick Chubb: Proj CEILING
65% carries, 9% Tgt share, 5.1ypc, 74% catch rate, 7.6 y/r
301 rush - 1535 - 15 TDs
40 Tgt - 29 rec - 225 RecYds
Chubb’s TD upside is tremendous, as CLE will produce more points. KStef will also provide plays to increase Chubb’s catch rate.
65% carries, 9% Tgt share, 5.1ypc, 74% catch rate, 7.6 y/r
301 rush - 1535 - 15 TDs
40 Tgt - 29 rec - 225 RecYds
Chubb’s TD upside is tremendous, as CLE will produce more points. KStef will also provide plays to increase Chubb’s catch rate.
2020 NCHUBB OUTLOOK:
Floor: 233.7 points. 2019 RB12
Ceiling: 295 points. 2019 RB5
Current ADP: RB11.
Despite Hunt likely receiving 40% of carries and majority of RB targets, Chubb’s floor in this new offense is tremendously safe. If I had to take a bet on which RB leads the...
Floor: 233.7 points. 2019 RB12
Ceiling: 295 points. 2019 RB5
Current ADP: RB11.
Despite Hunt likely receiving 40% of carries and majority of RB targets, Chubb’s floor in this new offense is tremendously safe. If I had to take a bet on which RB leads the...
League in rushing TDs, I would put money on Chubb, given the positive upside of CLE scoring per drive from last year, as well as the positive Red Zone efficiency that Stefanski brings to this run game (and he leans on the run game at the goal line). The main risk is if Kareem..
Hunt surpasses 40% of carries. I get the concern of a closer split of 50-50%, but every indication is that Stefanski loves Chubb’s scheme fit with this offense and OL. Chubb is arguably the best pure rusher alongside DHenry (and soon JT https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😉" title="Zwinkerndes Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Zwinkerndes Gesicht">). Bet on talent.
Risks to NChubb’s RB12 floor:
JJacobshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend">RB12 (High%)
Miles Sandershttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend">RB12 (High%)
Joe Mixonhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend">RB12 (Mod%)
Kenyan Drakehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend">RB12 (Mod%)
Pros to RB12 Floor:
Ekelerhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📉" title="Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend"> (68% of 2019 pts in passing game)
MIngramhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📉" title="Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend">
CCarsonhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📉" title="Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend">
Gurleyhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❓" title="Rotes Fragezeichen-Symbol" aria-label="Emoji: Rotes Fragezeichen-Symbol">
LeVeonhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❓" title="Rotes Fragezeichen-Symbol" aria-label="Emoji: Rotes Fragezeichen-Symbol">
Fournettehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❓" title="Rotes Fragezeichen-Symbol" aria-label="Emoji: Rotes Fragezeichen-Symbol">(https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📉" title="Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend">receptions)
JJacobs
Miles Sanders
Joe Mixon
Kenyan Drake
Pros to RB12 Floor:
Ekeler
MIngram
CCarson
Gurley
LeVeon
Fournette
Summary:
Nick Chubb is one of the safest RBs to grab for 2020. The presence of Kareem Hunt should not deter you. Both will get plenty of work, with Chubb likely leading in rush attempts and red zone looks, while Kareem leads in RB/WR3 targets. His RB5 ceiling is achieveable.
Nick Chubb is one of the safest RBs to grab for 2020. The presence of Kareem Hunt should not deter you. Both will get plenty of work, with Chubb likely leading in rush attempts and red zone looks, while Kareem leads in RB/WR3 targets. His RB5 ceiling is achieveable.
If you’ve made it this far, I thank you! https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🙏🏼" title="Folded hands (mittelheller Hautton)" aria-label="Emoji: Folded hands (mittelheller Hautton)"> this was much longer than I wanted it to be, but projecting Chubb vs Hunt has been difficult. Took a LOT of deep diving for these numbers. Some will agree, some won’t. Main goal: spark conversation! Please Retweet and comment thoughts!
Browns D was not strong last year, but they made a few additions which could help:
Adrian Clayborn. Grant Delpit. Karl Joseph. Andrew Billings. Kevin Johnson.
Browns have the 4th Easiest strength of schedule for 2020. The stage could be set for run game scripts.
