You can’t infer the correct grades at an individual level from the prior year’s distribution of grades, no matter how hard you clonk away at the abacus.

Everyone in the system should behave as though we’re getting ungraded aegrotat-style qualifications for a single year, even if they come with a notional grade. If sixth forms have to stop rejecting people because they won’t know who might need teaching, we will cope.

An exciting lesson in maths for everyone: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_fallacy

Also; making mock exams (and KS2 results!) into high-stakes tests after the event is stupid. I was a lazy child who didn’t work towards pointless exams, and I stand with all the other lazy teenagers who were told these exams were pointless.

Obviously, letting kids opt whether to have mock exams be their final grade is the single worst idea anyone has ever had.

I went to a school that marked everyone VERY HARD in mock exams because we needed to be MOTIVATED. I just got ill and missed the rest of the school year. But - dear lord - this is going to be a disaster.