On a panel & was asked if COVID-19 will help world prepare for the & #39;real& #39; big one. I actually think SARS-CoV-2 is the big & #39;Disease X& #39; experts warned about. We shouldn& #39;t underestimate the current crisis which has no simple solution.

If it were as lethal as MERS (33% CFR) then all gov& #39;ts would aim to eliminate. If it had similar health outcomes to flu then gov& #39;ts let it go. It falls in-between leading to muddled strategies, conflicted scientific advice & in the process, economy/health both taking a hit.

The challenge is to re-open economy/society while controlling COVID-19. Robust test/trace/isolate supported by face coverings, hygiene & border checks can help. But & #39;super-spreading& #39; events still a big challenge. E.g. 91 people testing positive from night at club in Barcelona.

Some push for ‘shielding’ vulnerable groups & let virus run through rest. But: would mean shielding over 40s, those with health issues, those who are obese, ethnic minorities & other risk groups. Also can’t easily separate healthy & vulnerable. And no certainty over immunity.