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My two-cents on the "geopolitical" dilemma that reacting harshly about protest crackdown in #Belarus would drive #Minsk in the hands of Russia:
1.) Russian influence in Belarus is already very strong, and 
is a #CSTO ally of 
. Don't have illusions about this.
is a #CSTO ally of . Don't have illusions about this.
2.) The current regime has lost all legitimacy. If one believes the independent exit polls from last weekend, de-legitimisation of Lukashenko exeeds that of Janukowycz in February 2014.
Whoever supports Lukashenko will be done with in the eyes of the Belarussian civil society.
Whoever supports Lukashenko will be done with in the eyes of the Belarussian civil society.
3.) The end of the regime in Minsk may come, even if that process lasts longer than we whish for. So who would bet on a dying horse?
4.) Don't be so sure that Moscow would hold on to Lukashenko under all circumstances. has managed leadership transitions in her dominions: Abkhazia, Transnistria, and Armenia.
Of course it does not want to see Lukashenko deposed by public revolt. But otherwise it keeps ...
has managed leadership transitions in her dominions: Abkhazia, Transnistria, and Armenia.Of course it does not want to see Lukashenko deposed by public revolt. But otherwise it keeps ...
... all options open. Note that even Russian state media reportet on the extended election fraud and the President's lost legitimacy.
Moscow also knows the opposition. Tsebalka fled to Moscow. Babarynka has ties to Russia.
Would a new government respect Moscow's red lines?
Moscow also knows the opposition. Tsebalka fled to Moscow. Babarynka has ties to Russia.
Would a new government respect Moscow's red lines?
Maybe.
Maybe Moscow would accept transition if it is left to beleieve it can puppeteer it. Slim chance, but still.
Maybe Moscow and post-revolutionary Belarus fall appart over details thereafter? A lot may happen.
Said that, does the EU wants to stay reactionary?
Maybe Moscow would accept transition if it is left to beleieve it can puppeteer it. Slim chance, but still.
Maybe Moscow and post-revolutionary Belarus fall appart over details thereafter? A lot may happen.
Said that, does the EU wants to stay reactionary?
5.) All 
attempts to act "geopolitically" ended in failure. Remember supporting Filat/Plahutniuk because they are "pro-Western"?
I still remember the moronic calls to cut Janukowycz a slack on rule of law because of Russian pressure.
This never ends up well.
attempts to act "geopolitically" ended in failure. Remember supporting Filat/Plahutniuk because they are "pro-Western"?I still remember the moronic calls to cut Janukowycz a slack on rule of law because of Russian pressure.
This never ends up well.
6.) If the EU stays with its norms and principles, success may take longer, but is sustainable. Lukashenko is not the final word in Belarus history.
Sitting and waiting for the opening to come may be frustrating. But at least then the EU is not compromised, w be able to use it!
Sitting and waiting for the opening to come may be frustrating. But at least then the EU is not compromised, w be able to use it!
