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I went on CNN today to talk about the current #coronavirus situation in the US. We talked about true deaths, schools vs. business closures, the measures we& #39;re not taking, how all of this end, and more. A thread
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[1/ https://twitter.com/CNNnewsroom/status/1293207969308577792">https://twitter.com/CNNnewsro...
[1/ https://twitter.com/CNNnewsroom/status/1293207969308577792">https://twitter.com/CNNnewsro...
Let& #39;s start with deaths. Officially, they& #39;re at ~165k, but if you look at excess deaths at the CDC, you get btw 150k & 215k
As a reminder, the US lost ~300k lives in World War II. But these took 4 years to accrue. We& #39;re ~2/3 there in ~10% of the time
[2/
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm">https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss...
As a reminder, the US lost ~300k lives in World War II. But these took 4 years to accrue. We& #39;re ~2/3 there in ~10% of the time
[2/
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm">https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss...
Where will it stop without a vaccine?
Let& #39;s assume herd immunity might be reached at ~50% (Rt down to ~2 thx to masks, ppl working from home, etc)
Treatments have improved, so the fatality rate might be ~0.3%-0.5%https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts"> 500k-800k total deaths
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Let& #39;s assume herd immunity might be reached at ~50% (Rt down to ~2 thx to masks, ppl working from home, etc)
Treatments have improved, so the fatality rate might be ~0.3%-0.5%
[3/
We talked about a window of opportunity to stop the virus.
We have a window because the transmission rate is low now with all the outdoors activity. Colds spread during winter because everybody is indoors.
Lower transmission ratehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts"> easier to control the virus
[4/
We have a window because the transmission rate is low now with all the outdoors activity. Colds spread during winter because everybody is indoors.
Lower transmission rate
[4/
But let& #39;s not forget that we can stop the virus at any time. The Hammer and the Dance: If you& #39;re overwhelmed with cases, lock down. If you aren& #39;t, start Dancing and take all the measures you need.
So what are these measures and how is the US faring?
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So what are these measures and how is the US faring?
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The main debate in the US right now is whether we should reopen schools.
It& #39;s set up as a debate between business closures now and school closures in a month.
That debate is myopic. If you& #39;re trading between school & business closures, you& #39;ve already lost.
[6/
It& #39;s set up as a debate between business closures now and school closures in a month.
That debate is myopic. If you& #39;re trading between school & business closures, you& #39;ve already lost.
[6/
South Korea and Taiwan barely closed schools & businesses, and yet their cases per inhabitant are ~200 times lower than in the US.
They have an open economy because they& #39;re doing things we aren& #39;t.
What are those things?
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They have an open economy because they& #39;re doing things we aren& #39;t.
What are those things?
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1. Travel restrictions
If you keep importing infections, you& #39;ll remain infected.
Every single country that has controlled the virus has strict travel restrictions.
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If you keep importing infections, you& #39;ll remain infected.
Every single country that has controlled the virus has strict travel restrictions.
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2. Test-trace-isolate
If you let infections run their course, those infected will spread the virus.
In the US, we don& #39;t test enough.
When we do test, we don& #39;t trace contacts enough.
When we do trace contacts, we don& #39;t mandate ppl to stay home. We ask nicely.
[9/
If you let infections run their course, those infected will spread the virus.
In the US, we don& #39;t test enough.
When we do test, we don& #39;t trace contacts enough.
When we do trace contacts, we don& #39;t mandate ppl to stay home. We ask nicely.
[9/
We also ask nicely for ppl to wear masks.
And yet...
~1M ppl visit every day NY state from states that are on their quarantine list. ~1-2k are likely infected. What % of them do you think are quarantining home?
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And yet...
~1M ppl visit every day NY state from states that are on their quarantine list. ~1-2k are likely infected. What % of them do you think are quarantining home?
[10/
This should not be left at the will of individuals.
There& #39;s a role for individual responsibility and a role for government action. Saving 300k more lives is a role for the gov.
Every single country that has controlled the virus has strict test-trace-isolate.
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There& #39;s a role for individual responsibility and a role for government action. Saving 300k more lives is a role for the gov.
Every single country that has controlled the virus has strict test-trace-isolate.
[11/
How does all of this stop?
1. States realize they& #39;re on their own
For this administration, the only good government is no government.
So for the coronavirus, there& #39;s no United States. There& #39;s only states.
States must internalize it and act accordingly.
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1. States realize they& #39;re on their own
For this administration, the only good government is no government.
So for the coronavirus, there& #39;s no United States. There& #39;s only states.
States must internalize it and act accordingly.
[12/
How does the coronavirus stop in the US? [cont.]
2. A vaccine. But it will still take many months until they& #39;re distributed at scale.
3. January 20th
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2. A vaccine. But it will still take many months until they& #39;re distributed at scale.
3. January 20th
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I& #39;m publishing very soon a new article touching on some of these topics. If you don& #39;t want to miss it, sign up here:
https://mailchi.mp/b44a5f38b4f7/coronavirus-sign-up-page">https://mailchi.mp/b44a5f38b...
https://mailchi.mp/b44a5f38b4f7/coronavirus-sign-up-page">https://mailchi.mp/b44a5f38b...
