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I went on CNN today to talk about the current #coronavirus situation in the US. We talked about true deaths, schools vs. business closures, the measures we're not taking, how all of this end, and more. A thread
[1/ https://twitter.com/CNNnewsroom/status/1293207969308577792
[1/ https://twitter.com/CNNnewsroom/status/1293207969308577792
Let's start with deaths. Officially, they're at ~165k, but if you look at excess deaths at the CDC, you get btw 150k & 215k
As a reminder, the US lost ~300k lives in World War II. But these took 4 years to accrue. We're ~2/3 there in ~10% of the time
[2/
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
As a reminder, the US lost ~300k lives in World War II. But these took 4 years to accrue. We're ~2/3 there in ~10% of the time
[2/
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Where will it stop without a vaccine?
Let's assume herd immunity might be reached at ~50% (Rt down to ~2 thx to masks, ppl working from home, etc)
Treatments have improved, so the fatality rate might be ~0.3%-0.5%
500k-800k total deaths
[3/
Let's assume herd immunity might be reached at ~50% (Rt down to ~2 thx to masks, ppl working from home, etc)
Treatments have improved, so the fatality rate might be ~0.3%-0.5%
500k-800k total deaths[3/
We talked about a window of opportunity to stop the virus.
We have a window because the transmission rate is low now with all the outdoors activity. Colds spread during winter because everybody is indoors.
Lower transmission rate easier to control the virus
[4/
We have a window because the transmission rate is low now with all the outdoors activity. Colds spread during winter because everybody is indoors.
Lower transmission rate
easier to control the virus[4/
But let's not forget that we can stop the virus at any time. The Hammer and the Dance: If you're overwhelmed with cases, lock down. If you aren't, start Dancing and take all the measures you need.
So what are these measures and how is the US faring?
[5/
So what are these measures and how is the US faring?
[5/
The main debate in the US right now is whether we should reopen schools.
It's set up as a debate between business closures now and school closures in a month.
That debate is myopic. If you're trading between school & business closures, you've already lost.
[6/
It's set up as a debate between business closures now and school closures in a month.
That debate is myopic. If you're trading between school & business closures, you've already lost.
[6/
South Korea and Taiwan barely closed schools & businesses, and yet their cases per inhabitant are ~200 times lower than in the US.
They have an open economy because they're doing things we aren't.
What are those things?
[7/
They have an open economy because they're doing things we aren't.
What are those things?
[7/
1. Travel restrictions
If you keep importing infections, you'll remain infected.
Every single country that has controlled the virus has strict travel restrictions.
[8/
If you keep importing infections, you'll remain infected.
Every single country that has controlled the virus has strict travel restrictions.
[8/
2. Test-trace-isolate
If you let infections run their course, those infected will spread the virus.
In the US, we don't test enough.
When we do test, we don't trace contacts enough.
When we do trace contacts, we don't mandate ppl to stay home. We ask nicely.
[9/
If you let infections run their course, those infected will spread the virus.
In the US, we don't test enough.
When we do test, we don't trace contacts enough.
When we do trace contacts, we don't mandate ppl to stay home. We ask nicely.
[9/
We also ask nicely for ppl to wear masks.
And yet...
~1M ppl visit every day NY state from states that are on their quarantine list. ~1-2k are likely infected. What % of them do you think are quarantining home?
[10/
And yet...
~1M ppl visit every day NY state from states that are on their quarantine list. ~1-2k are likely infected. What % of them do you think are quarantining home?
[10/
This should not be left at the will of individuals.
There's a role for individual responsibility and a role for government action. Saving 300k more lives is a role for the gov.
Every single country that has controlled the virus has strict test-trace-isolate.
[11/
There's a role for individual responsibility and a role for government action. Saving 300k more lives is a role for the gov.
Every single country that has controlled the virus has strict test-trace-isolate.
[11/
How does all of this stop?
1. States realize they're on their own
For this administration, the only good government is no government.
So for the coronavirus, there's no United States. There's only states.
States must internalize it and act accordingly.
[12/
1. States realize they're on their own
For this administration, the only good government is no government.
So for the coronavirus, there's no United States. There's only states.
States must internalize it and act accordingly.
[12/
How does the coronavirus stop in the US? [cont.]
2. A vaccine. But it will still take many months until they're distributed at scale.
3. January 20th
[13/13]
2. A vaccine. But it will still take many months until they're distributed at scale.
3. January 20th
[13/13]
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