Thread by @JoshuaCypess, 1/ I was trying to comfort a friend abt our situation b/c [...]

1/ I was trying to comfort a friend abt our situation b/c they were rightfully terrified that the US could turn into what& #39;s happening in Belarus right now ( https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/10/world/europe/belarus-election.html)

There& #39;s">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/1... a fine line b/w being aware & alert vs paralyzed with despair. Sadly, it& #39;s very hard to do

Belarus’s Leader Vows to Crush Protests After Claiming Landslide Election Win

Violent clashes between the police and protesters erupted across Belarus on Monday after President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko declared victory in a vote widely dismissed as fraudulent.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/10/world/europe/belarus-election.html

2/ Here is the litany of comforts I described about why I feel Trump (ym& #39;sh) is likely to be defeated by Biden in the upcoming election.

(a) DJT incompetence
(b) October Surprises
(c) DJT Health
(d) Will of the People

3/ (A) DJT Incompetence: this has been clear from the start. The bad guys are terrible at being evil. The Ukraine Plot was stupid & it was foiled, leading to impeachment

The only reason DJT has been & #39;successful& #39; in anything has been the well-oiled evil machine of current GOP

4/ (a cont.) The machine:

FoxNews as sole info for 40% of ppl
White Supremacist Christian Movements
SCOTUS stacked w/partisan hacks
bullying of the MSM
neglect of abusive bosses in media & industry
tacit acceptance of W-Suprem in US culture

All built-in rot that DJT uses

5/ (a cont.) Any effectiveness of DJT comes from the power of that machine. But DJT& #39;s crew are Z-listers who botch up everything

In contrast, compare to a very talented evil crook: Dick Cheney. He got away w/war crimes & grand theft

DJT& #39;s group aren& #39;t good at crime

6/ (a...) The success of 2016 didn& #39;t come from DJT& #39;s talent. It was from:

i. state sponsored espionage & cyber-hacking
ii. complicity of Facebook etc
iii. MSM bending backwards b/c they& #39;ve been bullied into coddling Nazis AND b/c they thought HRC was going to win
iv. Comey

7/ (a...) 538 showed that Comey& #39;s October surprise was the necessary step to push DJT into victory. Until then, it wasn& #39;t going to happen, even with the massive treason & malfeasance.

Please remember this. DJT squeaked in. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/">https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...

The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton The Election

So why won't the media admit as much?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

8/ (a...) I emphasize DJT& #39;s incompetence b/c every plot gets exposed & often neutralized except when a different group carries it over the line. See the Muslim Ban which needed a disgusting SCOTUS ruling to enforce it

Another reason he fails so often is that he& #39;s evil but stupid

9/ (a...) By stupid, I mean: Trump (ym& #39;sh) is like a space-alien in how he doesn& #39;t know anything about lived experiences of Americans. Mary Trump described him as basically being institutionalized his whole life. Fallout from his sheltered wealth https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/us/politics/mary-trump-book.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/0...

Mary Trump’s Book Accuses the President of Embracing ‘Cheating as a Way of Life’

The president’s niece, Mary L. Trump, is the first to break ranks with the family and release a tell-all memoir.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/us/politics/mary-trump-book.html

10/ (a...) Can you imagine DJT mailing a letter? Buying groceries? Needing to show up at a job or he& #39;ll get fired & his family starve? Nnnnnope

His plots are stupid b/c he lacks facts. Destroying USPS is insane. It& #39;s a universal good.

Basically, Trump is all circus and no bread

11/ (a...) Circus is the distracting spectacle, bread is the easy-flow of benefit to his cult/followers. He gives them images of Libz being Pwned but doesn& #39;t give the cult anything else tangible. Cutting the mail is just mindless evil.

12/ (a...) Another reason all of his schemes backfire, besides being based on faulty facts, is that they& #39;re all short-term tactics that just explode in the end.

One of his worst approval periods was Jan 2019. Why? The insane gov. shutdown. That& #39;s what USPS gambit reminds me of.

13/ (a...) BTW, his approval rose during the impeachment. There seems to be a rally-flag effect during that kinda thing. Just to keep in mind.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/">https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-app...

Anyway, his gambits are brutal but not effective. Basically, terrorism. We& #39;re left with paralyzing fear.

How Popular Is Donald Trump?

FiveThirtyEight is tracking Donald Trump’s approval ratings throughout his presidency.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

14/ This is the first of the 4 Comforts, (a) DJT& #39;s history of incompetence & the backlash he suffers.

I& #39;ll discuss the next 3, (b) October Surprises, (c) DJT& #39;s health & (d) Will of the People, soon.

15/ (B) October Surprises

We& #39;re worried Barr and/or GOP Senate will try to rig up a Biden scandal, weaponizing the DOJ & other investigations. It worked very well with w*kileaks (GRU operation) & the NY FBI pressuring Comey (see above, it was the last nail in the coffin)

16/ (b...) The 2019 Ukraine gambit was this type of surprise. Exploding that plot, I& #39;m assuming, will neutralize many future plots.

More importantly, almost all of DJT& #39;s recent bizarre gambits immediately fizzle b/c of his shot credibility: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-ignored/2020/08/08/01aacfa6-d76f-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html">https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/...

A president ignored: Trump’s outlandish claims increasingly met with a collective shrug

More than 3½ years into his presidency, Trump often finds himself minimized, as many of his outrageous or groundless statements are briefly considered and then, just as quickly, dismissed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-ignored/2020/08/08/01aacfa6-d76f-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html

17/ (b...) He says so many stupid lies that nobody seems to actually listen. His own admin. ignores his proclamations. He accused Obama, yesterday!, of treason. Met with yawns.

@HoarseWisperer said (great thread), we& #39;ve become habituated to DJT& #39;s crazy https://twitter.com/HoarseWisperer/status/1288297451451973632">https://twitter.com/HoarseWis...

https://twitter.com/HoarseWisperer/status/1288297451451973632

18/ (b...) Barr is better at the game, but barely. He& #39;s an absurd monarchist thug. Look at Lafayette Square and Portland. That& #39;s fascist fantasy, great for Barr& #39;s dictator cosplay, but absymal tactics. A whole lot of action, very little payoff

19/ (b...) Like with most of DJT& #39;s tactics, it& #39;s short-term thrill, long-term failure. If Barr tries the same stuff in Nov., we& #39;re prepared for it. We know he& #39;ll do something like it, even if he mixes up the presentation. He telegraphed his punch.

20/ (b...) But my point about October Surprises isn& #39;t about the GOP; it& #39;s about the Democrats.

There are real events that are imminent.

e.g. (i) The newest Senate Intel. Cmte report: https://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/510590-senate-intelligence-panel-approves-final-russia-report-moves-towards">https://thehill.com/policy/cy...

Senate Intel panel approves final Russia report, moves toward public

The Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday voted to adopt its fifth and final report on Russia’e election interference efforts in 2016, with committee leaders vowing to keep working towards

https://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/510590-senate-intelligence-panel-approves-final-russia-report-moves-towards

21/ (b...) (ii) The NYC AG case is getting closer to an inflection point. They have his tax returns (an El Dorado) and have 2 months to come out with a damning revelation of Trump& #39;s crimes https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/10/new-york-trump-october-surprise-393177">https://www.politico.com/news/2020...

Will New York slap Trump with an October surprise?

A number of legal probes into the president and his allies could pose a political threat.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/10/new-york-trump-october-surprise-393177

22/ (b...) The Maxwell/Epstein case has so many facets that implicate Trump (ym& #39;sh) personally it& #39;s disturbing.

Anything can come forward, especially from his underage victims. Maxwell can cut a deal; physical evidence abounds. He& #39;s very guilty of the worst crimes

23/ (b...) There are at least two other cases related to Trump (ym& #39;sh) assaulting women, Summer Zervos & E. Jean Carroll

Again, both women can release information. Court discovery is a potent weapon. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/jean-carroll-trump-lawsuit/2020/08/06/ef4b10f2-d82f-11ea-aff6-220dd3a14741_story.html">https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-...

In a loss for Trump, judge says woman who accused him of rape can proceed with defamation suit

Trump had tried to delay the suit from journalist E. Jean Carroll while an appeals court considered a similar, but separate case.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/jean-carroll-trump-lawsuit/2020/08/06/ef4b10f2-d82f-11ea-aff6-220dd3a14741_story.html

24/ (b...) All of these Dem October Surprises are through the valid legal system. But there are other avenues for patriots to damage DJT

In every case above, plus the recent revelation that an over-classified report abt. Nov., damaging info can be leaked https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/511189-blumenthal-calls-for-declassification-of-materials-detailing-russian-threat">https://thehill.com/homenews/...

Blumenthal calls for declassification of materials detailing Russian

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said intelligence detailing Russian efforts to influence the 2020 elections should be declassified and made available to the public before ballots are cast.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/511189-blumenthal-calls-for-declassification-of-materials-detailing-russian-threat

24/ (b...) A patriotic gov. employee, juror, even a staffer for an elected official can leak damaging info to the press, a la the Pentagon Papers

We& #39;re already seeing this avenue w/the #RussianBounties. The IC leaked that. Why not his tax returns? Or even more damaging stuff?

25/ (b...) A package of 5 greatest crimes by Trump (ym& #39;sh) (1) tax returns (2) child-rape (3) audio clip of an NSA intercept of his unsecured phone calls w/Putin, (4) money laundering with Saudis, (5) support for other massacres etc, gets released mid-October

All possible

26/ (b...) I& #39;m not saying probable, I& #39;m not saying I& #39;m counting on it, but like many of you I& #39;m frightened of the GOP& #39;s dirty tricks. So I& #39;m imagining my own list of counter-tricks

& in real life for each Ukraine-gambit by DJT I have RussianBounties by anti-DJT on the other side

27/ (b...) So even with real evidence, we can see what tricks the GOP is trying (suppress the vote, Portland secret police, mail sabotage) but there& #39;s evidence on the other side that there can be damaging leaks to hamstring the GOP in return

28/ So far the first 2 of the Comforts: (a) DJT/GOP incompetence, (b) the good guys being fully capable of their own October Surprises

Next two: (c) DJT& #39;s health, (d) The Will of the People

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