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[ MEGA THREAD ] - A Tale of Two Rookies
Josh Jacobs vs David Montgomery stats comparison
Jacobs and Montgomery both had 242 carries in 2019, yet had vastly different seasons.
Jacobs gained 1150 rushing yards (4.8 YPA) and 7 TDs
Montgomery gained 889 yards (3.7 YPA) and 6 TDs
Josh Jacobs vs David Montgomery stats comparison
Jacobs and Montgomery both had 242 carries in 2019, yet had vastly different seasons.
Jacobs gained 1150 rushing yards (4.8 YPA) and 7 TDs
Montgomery gained 889 yards (3.7 YPA) and 6 TDs
Why does this matter?
Since 2000, only 18 rookie RBs had over 200 carries and 4.5 YPA and half were drafted in the first round
They are:
Since 2000, only 18 rookie RBs had over 200 carries and 4.5 YPA and half were drafted in the first round
They are:
What happened when these players went on to their 2nd season?
10/17 (Jacobs hasn't played his 2nd year yet) got 200+ carries again. However, that doesn't paint a full picture of what happened.
All but one player (Steve Slaton) were on pace to have at least 200+ carries...
10/17 (Jacobs hasn't played his 2nd year yet) got 200+ carries again. However, that doesn't paint a full picture of what happened.
All but one player (Steve Slaton) were on pace to have at least 200+ carries...
Slaton was still on pace for 190, getting 131 in 11 games.
Other cases worth mentioning:
Doug Martin's 127 carries in 6 games (!!!)
Chris Johnson's 2,000 yard rushing season
Adrian Peterson's 1,760 yard season
Being part of this elite club has its perks.
Jacobs...
Other cases worth mentioning:
Doug Martin's 127 carries in 6 games (!!!)
Chris Johnson's 2,000 yard rushing season
Adrian Peterson's 1,760 yard season
Being part of this elite club has its perks.
Jacobs...
Has a lot more going for him.
While we already know almost every player was on pace for 200+ carries, they weren't guaranteed it.
From 2000-2010 only 4/9 RBs hit 200+ carries.
From 2010-2019 6/8 did.
The two that missed? Martin and Hunt who were on insane paces.
Also...
While we already know almost every player was on pace for 200+ carries, they weren't guaranteed it.
From 2000-2010 only 4/9 RBs hit 200+ carries.
From 2010-2019 6/8 did.
The two that missed? Martin and Hunt who were on insane paces.
Also...
We can divide this not only by decade but by draft pick.
Those drafted in the first round hit 6/8 times (once again, Doug Martin's 21+ carries per game were excluded)
So he's in the ideal decade
and draft round, and is part of a group of only 18 players.
His future...
Those drafted in the first round hit 6/8 times (once again, Doug Martin's 21+ carries per game were excluded)
So he's in the ideal decade
and draft round, and is part of a group of only 18 players. His future...
Looks bright. This Raiders offensive line ranked 18th in run blocking according to Pro Football Focus.
While Las Vegas didn't address the OL in the draft until the fourth round, they did work towards improving the passing game.
Henry Ruggs, Lynn Bowden, and Bryan Edwards...
While Las Vegas didn't address the OL in the draft until the fourth round, they did work towards improving the passing game.
Henry Ruggs, Lynn Bowden, and Bryan Edwards...
Should be an upgrade from Hunter Renfrow, an oft-injured Tyrell Williams, and Jalen Richard (he was fourth on the team in receiving yards with 323). Darren Waller returns, and the team also brought in Jason Witten
I don't think it's pushing it to say that...
I don't think it's pushing it to say that...
If Derek Carr was able to squeeze 4000+ yards and 21 TDs from that receiving unit, he could be in for a huge season, and more importantly keep the offense on the field
The team also signed former Ram Cory Littleton and took corner Damon Arnette in the first round of the draft.
The team also signed former Ram Cory Littleton and took corner Damon Arnette in the first round of the draft.
While I don't expect this defense to stun anyone, any chance of more positive game-scripts for Jacobs is welcome.
One last thing to sell you on him in his second season:
While he did have the 13st most carries in the league, he also had the 3rd most (13) runs of 15+ yards and
One last thing to sell you on him in his second season:
While he did have the 13st most carries in the league, he also had the 3rd most (13) runs of 15+ yards and
81 evaded tackles, which ranked 8th.
He had a 26.3% dominator rating, ranking 11th in the league, and he did this all with the 23rd worst game script.
All of these are stats from http://playerprofiler.com by the way.
He had a 26.3% dominator rating, ranking 11th in the league, and he did this all with the 23rd worst game script.
All of these are stats from http://playerprofiler.com by the way.
While his workout metrics and college dominator make me want to cry, I think we can see that Jacobs is off to a roaring start to his career in the big leagues.
While I can't say anything definitively for dynasty, in redraft he should continue to get carries and is a steal...
While I can't say anything definitively for dynasty, in redraft he should continue to get carries and is a steal...
At his current ADP of 24 (for ESPN, as of today)
The man has control of this backfield.
DeAndre Washington, now with the Chiefs, leaves behind 108 carries, 50% (on the dot) of which he got while Jacobs was out in Weeks 14, 16, and 17. This wasn't some split backfield.
The man has control of this backfield.
DeAndre Washington, now with the Chiefs, leaves behind 108 carries, 50% (on the dot) of which he got while Jacobs was out in Weeks 14, 16, and 17. This wasn't some split backfield.
Now onto Montgomery (hang in there, I believe in you! Take a quick breather.)
Like Jacobs, there was an exclusive group that Monty belonged to. You may be surprised to hear who belongs to it...
Like Jacobs, there was an exclusive group that Monty belonged to. You may be surprised to hear who belongs to it...
Now, I know what you're thinking: "Wow! Is that really former top 5 pick Trent Richardson!" Yes, yes. He's there.
Also some guy named LaDainian Tomlinson. I'll look up if he did well later
So clearly this group isn't THAT bad, despite some glaring differences in players.
Also some guy named LaDainian Tomlinson. I'll look up if he did well later
So clearly this group isn't THAT bad, despite some glaring differences in players.
However, when we split for decades like last time, we see the opposite effect.
From 2000-2010, 5/8 players repeated 200+ carries, with William Green (142 in 7 games) and Knowshon Moreno (182 in 13) on pace but missing the cut.
From 2011-2019, only ONE back repeated. Guess who?
From 2000-2010, 5/8 players repeated 200+ carries, with William Green (142 in 7 games) and Knowshon Moreno (182 in 13) on pace but missing the cut.
From 2011-2019, only ONE back repeated. Guess who?
The only other back to even come close was Leonard Fournette, who had 133 carries in 8 games. The other 5 weren't close.
Splitting by draft pick doesn't help his case either.
The 1st rounders surprisingly hit 3/8 times, the 2nd rounders 3/4 times, and the 3rd+ rounders 0/3
Splitting by draft pick doesn't help his case either.
The 1st rounders surprisingly hit 3/8 times, the 2nd rounders 3/4 times, and the 3rd+ rounders 0/3
Did I mention David Montgomery was drafted in the third round?
Technically I'm cheating a bit, since he was the ONLY third rounder (a fourth and two fifths were the only other ones past three) but it's not like that detail will shoot him up your rankings.
Technically I'm cheating a bit, since he was the ONLY third rounder (a fourth and two fifths were the only other ones past three) but it's not like that detail will shoot him up your rankings.
One of the few things Monty seems to have going for him is that he has essentially NO competition in this backfield.
Tarik Cohen's 64 carries were the second highest on the team, and only Mitch Trubisky (48), Cordarrelle Patterson (17) and Mike Davis (11) hit double digits.
Tarik Cohen's 64 carries were the second highest on the team, and only Mitch Trubisky (48), Cordarrelle Patterson (17) and Mike Davis (11) hit double digits.
No significant competition worth naming has even been brought in to compete for touches. I feel confident that for at least the beginning of the season, this is his backfield.
Maybe the Bears will surprise us and sign Devonta Freeman. But until then, he's getting his carries.
Maybe the Bears will surprise us and sign Devonta Freeman. But until then, he's getting his carries.
But I didn't go through all of those stats to tell you that he's some safe pick. Even at his 6th round ADP, why him over, say, Kareem Hunt (1 spot earlier) or taking a shot on rookie D'Andre Swift (6 spots earlier)?
I truly believe that he will get a ton of carries and that...
I truly believe that he will get a ton of carries and that...
You should easily buy into that. What I don't believe is that his upside is enough to win you a league on its own. If you need an RB in the middle of the draft & you want to grab someone with OPPORTUNITY, take him. You know he's getting the carries, and in fantasy sometimes...
That's all you need. But there's a reason one of these players was drafted two rounds earlier than the other, and while I'm SUPER high on both, I am tempering my expectations for Montgomery much more now.
I probably won't be taking too many more shares of him this year, but...
I probably won't be taking too many more shares of him this year, but...
I'm still ALL over Josh Jacobs. You can literally grab this guy in the third round.
Even though both players have limited receiving upside for now, I feel like what Jacobs does on the ground is beautiful. In what I expect to be a higher-powered offense than the Bears, Jacobs...
Even though both players have limited receiving upside for now, I feel like what Jacobs does on the ground is beautiful. In what I expect to be a higher-powered offense than the Bears, Jacobs...
Can take advantage of the rushing upside.
Who do you like better at their ADP? Did reading this change your mind on either? Be sure to tag your friends and let me know how you feel!
Who do you like better at their ADP? Did reading this change your mind on either? Be sure to tag your friends and let me know how you feel!
