You may have read that a UK-Japan trade deal has hit a Stilton-shaped bump, and wondered if the UK is really playing hardball over a bit of cheese. Here’s why that might not be as mad as it sounds.

A thread.

Globally, the trade in cheese was worth under £25billion last year – not massive, but there’s good business to be done. Last year, the UK was the 11th biggest supplier, with exports worth £708m, which made cheese our 4th-biggest food export after whisky, salmon and chocolate

Demand for cheese has been growing rapidly, especially in China where, between 2014 and 18, UK cheese sales leapt from £67,000 to £6.5m … or 10,000%, if you prefer. In fact, 7 of our fastest-growing cheese export markets were in Asia

Now, Britain exports a lot of cheese but imports much more. The UK’s cheese trade deficit is a nice, round, truckle-shaped £1billion. And there is another cheese twist in this tale. The only other country with a £1billion cheese deficit just happens to be … Japan.

And, in case you think this is just a British quirk, remember that, when the EU and Japan edged towards a trade deal in 2017, those talks were, literally, dubbed the ‘Cars for Cheese Deal’

The headlines may be about Stilton holding up a trade deal, and the bemusing stats may show that Britain shifted a mere £102,000 of it in Japan last year. But don’t be fooled. Stilton is a handy distraction from what is a very significant element of any trade deal with Japan.

Oh, and one other thing… Everyone wants a slice of the action. Most of the global cheese giants are European: Germany, Netherlands, Italy, France, Denmark, Ireland and Belgium are all in the top 10, above Britain

In the table of countries which export more cheese than they import, then Netherlands, France and Italy lead, with Denmark and Ireland also in the top 10 http://www.worldstopexports.com/cheese-exports-country/

Japan doesn’t want to offer us a deal that winds up those other European countries. Meanwhile, those other countries are watching what happens to Britain’s export costs not just to Japan but to Europe…they are ready to pounce if we don’t agree a comprehensive EU trade deal.

Consumers will be hit by price increases – remember, a thin deal under World Trade Organisation rules mandates tariffs – and British farmers will, overnight, see the competitiveness of their produce slashed

That’s why we need not just a Japanese trade deal, one that covers cars and cheese just like the EU arrangement we’re walking away from. We also desperately need a deal that covers cars and cheese and a whole lot more besides with our biggest trading partner just over the sea

Because one thing is for sure: we cannot have our cheese and eat it