I’ll put my prediction out there in public now about Biden’s VP pick, rather than the safe way of nodding sagely after the fact.

This is probably going to be wrong, but my prediction is he’ll pick Sen. Tammy Duckworth, for reasons I’ll explain in follow-ups.

We know Biden is going to pick a woman as his VP. He’s also almost certain to pick someone young-ish (for politics), given his age — 65 isn’t too old to be vice president, but it’s probably too old to be Joe Biden’s vice president.

Biden’s large and consistent lead in the polls also suggests he’ll pick a relatively established, “vetted” figure, rather than try for a “game change” with a wild card. He doesn’t need to roll the dice, he wants someone who will do no harm.

Duckworth isn’t established on the level of, say, Kamala Harris, but she’s a national political figure who’s been through some tough elections. Less likely there’s some skeletons in her closet than someone who hasn’t had the press & oppo researchers combing through them yet.

Also, from a narrative perspective, it feels like Biden’s most likely to pick someone who hasn’t been in the zeitgeist over the past few days. Duckworth’s definitely on the shortlist but has been ignored relaive to Harris and a few others lately.

Beyond that, Duckworth clears the experience bar, her military service makes for a strong story, as does her experience as a working mother. And she would be unlikely to endanger a key political office, given Illinois’s blue status. (Though Mark Kirk warns against assumptions.)

Against all this, we of course have no idea about the all-important factor: how well Biden gets along with her.

At a time of racial tension, Biden may want to pick a Black woman.

She’s had some stumbles on the national stage, and isn’t as well-known as others.

And finally, in case anyone is confused, I’ll reiterate that I’m not *hoping* Duckworth will get picked. That’s my prediction after analyzing the situation. I have no normative preference here about VP pick background, politics, etc.