BLUF: the Gwadar project is not likely to fulfil its lofty commercial aspirations, but it is still valuable to Beijing as 1) an “exit to the sea” (出海口) connecting China directly with the Indian Ocean via a Chinese-built infrastructure corridor...
...and 2) a mode of securing its periphery through economic development, a strong imperative given PRC fear of instability and terrorism in Xinjiang.
军事方面: Gwadar isn’t a PLA base and doesn’t need to be. The PLAN calls regularly at Karachi, and another Pak port of call doesn’t add much. Some probable dual uses moving forward, so we will be watching closely w/ @peter_dutton @KennedyMaritime @AndrewSErickson @rdmartinson88
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