1/ What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? We are about to find out in Lebanon in the next few days. Unprecedented anger and determination of protesters on one side. Most want the country's sectarian system dismantled, but unclear what should replace it. https://twitter.com/timourazhari/status/1292136133418192896

2/ On the other hand, a system of zu'ama and businessmen with large numbers of partisans and foreign support. They are mostly located miles away from the center of Beirut, and are unaffected by protests. They will resist with violence any change that could diminish their power.

3/ Then finally, you have an "international community" that has shown relatively little sympathy for Lebanon, and next to no original thinking. The US is still laser focused on countering Hezbollah, while France is more accommodating, but neither has much interest in big change.

4/ I have no brilliant thoughts to offer about possible solutions. Lebanon has often had National Dialogues in times of crisis (Martin Wählisch wrote a good report on this in 2017). But these usually only include the traditional leaders or their reps. https://www.berghof-foundation.org/fileadmin/redaktion/Publications/Other_Resources/NationalDialogue/NDH_Lebanon.pdf

5/ If a National Dialogue were to be meaningful, would have to start from premise that the existing system has failed-a new one is needed. It would have to have a broader constituency, including civil society leaders. Some would have to accept that time has come to give up power.

6/ Otherwise, I don't see this ending well. There is no new government that could satisfy the protesters. Many see their lives and livelihoods as at stake. A full-scale civil war is unlikely, because they are not organized, but repression by the army or militias is a possibility.