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Jobs. Congress must act this week or millions more will go jobless, lose healthcare, & fall fast without a safety net. This is deadly serious for aviation workers & others. The EOs do absolutely nothing. Let’s look at some real numbers & the ripple effect across our economy 1/20
55 million. That’s how many Americans filed for unemployment since the pandemic broke (This number doesn’t even include workers who are excluded or left the workforce to care for kids) https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2020/08/06/12-million-americans-file-for-unemployment-roughly-55-million-filed-since-march/#6d05abaf4531 2/20
In aviation, hundreds of thousands of jobs will vanish unless Congress acts to extend the Payroll Support Program (PSP) covering paychecks & healthcare for 2.1 million workers. An overwhelming bipartisan majority of Congress supports extending this efficient jobs program. 3/20
Aviation is still only a fraction of pre-COVID demand, & the PSP w/ required continued air service to small communities is about to lapse. Democrats & Republicans are adamantly for extending this job program, but w/o action now the harm is enormous & recovery is in question 4/20
Many of those 55 million who filed for unemployment have stayed afloat because of the $600 enhanced benefit. But if Congress fails to reach a deal & workers lose that money, economists from @JPMorgan to @nberpubs to @EPI warn it will be disastrous, w/ more job loss. 5/20
JP Morgan’s study shows the $600 benefit propped up and spurred consumer spending, while processing delays result in large spending declines. A total lapse could drive a drop in spending bigger than the Great Recession and shrink the economy by 2%.
6/20 https://theweek.com/speedreads/929528/lapse-pandemic-unemployment-benefits-could-cause-greater-consumer-spending-decline-than-great-recession
6/20 https://theweek.com/speedreads/929528/lapse-pandemic-unemployment-benefits-could-cause-greater-consumer-spending-decline-than-great-recession
And just this morning, JP Morgan warned that the economy will suffer badly if Congress fails to reach a deal that addresses real issues, rather than the disruptive, empty promise of the Executive Orders.
7/20 https://twitter.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1292869543833075713?s=20
7/20 https://twitter.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1292869543833075713?s=20
. @nberpubs latest report shows the same--failure to reach a deal and extend the enhanced unemployment benefit will lead to a 44% drop in local spending. Even at $400--Trump's EOs are in reality $0--we’d see a steep drop 8/20 https://www.nber.org/papers/w27576
Less spending means fewer jobs. @EconomicPolicy determines that the spending generated by that extra $600 is supporting 5 million jobs, most (or all) of which will disappear if Congress doesn't act now 9/20 https://www.epi.org/blog/why-we-still-need-the-600-unemployment-benefit/
Even with the $600 benefit, millions of workers can’t make ends meet. One in three Americans is behind on housing payments, and 30-40 million people face eviction in coming months. Without the extra $600, those numbers will skyrocket 10/20 https://www.aspeninstitute.org/blog-posts/the-covid-19-eviction-crisis-an-estimated-30-40-million-people-in-america-are-at-risk/
“Local hardware stores, rent. I’m worried about the local housing market if the $600 disappears,” National Employment Law Project @EvermoreMichele said.
The $600 plus up is more than a safety net, it’s a job creator and a bank saver. 11/20 https://www.marketplace.org/2020/07/16/extra-unemployment-benefit-during-pandemic-boosts-spending/
The $600 plus up is more than a safety net, it’s a job creator and a bank saver. 11/20 https://www.marketplace.org/2020/07/16/extra-unemployment-benefit-during-pandemic-boosts-spending/
An eviction or foreclosure makes finding a job harder-and it’s already too hard. Tens of millions of workers are competing for far fewer jobs than were available just 6 months ago. For every job available, there are FIVE people looking for work 12/20 https://www.pri.org/stories/2011-07-12/us-economy-nearly-5-workers-every-job
But letting the $600 unemployment benefit lapse is far from the only thing that will cause massive job losses if Congress fails to act. State and local governments are facing huge shortfalls, & begging Congress for help. Without it, there’s another job loss tsunami coming 13/20
How big a wave? Again per @EconomicPolicy, 5.3 million critical public workers will lose their jobs by the end of next year if Senate Republicans don’t come back to the table to work out a real package 14/20 https://www.epi.org/blog/without-federal-aid-to-state-and-local-governments-5-3-million-workers-will-likely-lose-their-jobs-by-the-end-of-2021-see-estimated-job-losses-by-state/
If we maintain the $600 enhanced benefit and provide aid to state and local governments, we can preserve 10 million jobs, and the $600 benefit will save millions of unemployed Americans from complete disaster 15/20 https://twitter.com/joshbivens_DC/status/1292882313160818691?s=20
And it’s not just think tanks and corporations. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell, who has used the Fed’s authority to prop up financial markets, practically begged Congress to extend the $600 benefit and fill the gaps in state and local budgets 16/20 https://www.businessinsider.com/powell-steps-stimulus-congress-economy-afloat-coronavirus-fed-relief-spending-2020-6
Now, early signs of recovery are slowing. Americans are watching Congress in horror as the $600 benefit sunset came and went. Consumer spending is already stalling out. We need @senatemajldr at the table with @speakerpelosi to finish a deal NOW 17/20 https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-outlook-credit-card-spending-data-recovery-stalling-recession-jpmorgan-2020-7
We are in survival mode. Throw out everything you thought you knew because the conditions have never before been like this. The cost of letting our economy go into free fall is far greater than the cost of protecting jobs & keeping people safe in the midst of a pandemic 18/20
As we stand on the precipice of another Great Depression, austerity policy is not even penny-wise, only pound foolish. As the virus surges again, more jobs will disappear. But now there’s nothing to slow the descent. PPP is dried up. Enhanced UI and aviation PSP is expiring 19/20
From the 600k jobs at the USPS to the transportation & sanitation workers in our cities, Congress needs to take action for our jobs. If not now, we will lose control of the virus and our economy. Our whole country’s future is on the line. Congress must act - no more delay. 20/20
