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I'm sorry, this paper by Paola Giuliano and Romain Wazciarg has me too damn excited. Their finding is, in essence, the central political finding of Alienated America. http://papers.nber.org/tmp/59388-w27651.pdf
(So yes, I have no ability to analyze these findings objectively, as it's confirmation bias off the chart for me. But listen up...)
I wrote in *Alienated America* "People enmeshed in strong communities rejected Trump in the early primaries while people alienated, abandoned, lacking social ties and community rushed to him." https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/02/16/donald-trump-support-2020-oostburg-wisconsin-chevy-chase-maryland-225161
“When I was a kid,” 80y/o Bob Garrett told me, “it was really great to be an American, and it’s just disintegrated over the years."
This sense of alienation from one's own country turned out to be one of the best predictors of Trump support. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/how-the-collapse-of-communities-gave-us-trump
This sense of alienation from one's own country turned out to be one of the best predictors of Trump support. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/how-the-collapse-of-communities-gave-us-trump
So all those liberal critics who said Trump’s election was more about culture than economics? They were right. More precisely, though, Trump support was about cultural alienation. People turned to him to fill a void left by the erosion of civil society. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/how-the-collapse-of-communities-gave-us-trump
This paper's hypothesis: "A fraying social fabric, captured by a decline in the density of membership in civic and religious organizations, is partly responsible for the rise of populism." http://papers.nber.org/tmp/59388-w27651.pdf
"social capital, measured either by the density of memberships in civic, religious and sports organizations or by generalized trust, is significantly negatively
correlated with the vote share and favorability rating of Donald Trump" http://papers.nber.org/tmp/59388-w27651.pdf
correlated with the vote share and favorability rating of Donald Trump" http://papers.nber.org/tmp/59388-w27651.pdf
Why would lower social capital correlate with populism? The paper offers various possibilities; "individuals with dense social networks and connections may find it easier to cope with the economic changes that result from globalization, technological progress, and immigration. "
I kinda made that very argument in comparing Western Michigan to Detroit: "Strong communities cannot prevent economic downturns, but they can preserve social capital during economic downturns." https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/a-tale-of-two-michigans
The places with weaker webs of community, when economic hard times hit, people have a much harder time keeping their s**t together.
The paper authors also offer this explanation: " a
populist candidate acts as a substitute for institutions and politicians in which the voter with few social connections places very low levels of trust."
Exactly.
populist candidate acts as a substitute for institutions and politicians in which the voter with few social connections places very low levels of trust."
Exactly.
I argued that this was true in the specific case of religion: " Many of Trump’s earliest and most dedicated supporters were seeking a deeper fulfillment.
They came to Trump seeking what they had lost because they had lost church." https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-ex-churchgoers-flocked-to-trump/
They came to Trump seeking what they had lost because they had lost church." https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/why-ex-churchgoers-flocked-to-trump/
