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The First 8 Games: A Mid-Season Buyer's Guide to Early WR Production - A Thread
We hear all the time that rookie WRs tend to get off to a slow start.
But, what about when they don't?
What type of career arc can you expect?
(1/13)
We hear all the time that rookie WRs tend to get off to a slow start.
But, what about when they don't?
What type of career arc can you expect?
(1/13)
I looked at the Highest PPR points/game season for WRs who hit various receiving thresholds over their first 8 games.
I excluded 2018 and 2019 to eliminate players with only 1 or 2 years to reach their MAX PPG.
Here is what I found:
(2/13)
I excluded 2018 and 2019 to eliminate players with only 1 or 2 years to reach their MAX PPG.
Here is what I found:
(2/13)
From 2000-2017, over their first 8 games:
137 rookies had between 10 and 19 receptions
68 had between 20 to 29 receptions
27 had between 30 and 39 receptions and
11 had 40 or more
(3/13)
137 rookies had between 10 and 19 receptions
68 had between 20 to 29 receptions
27 had between 30 and 39 receptions and
11 had 40 or more
(3/13)
Here is how each production level fared in their best PPG season:
ABOVE AVERAGE - 15.0PPG or more
GREAT - 17.5PPG or more
ELITE - 20.0PPG or more
(4/13)
ABOVE AVERAGE - 15.0PPG or more
GREAT - 17.5PPG or more
ELITE - 20.0PPG or more
(4/13)
Here is another way of looking at it:
(5/13)
(5/13)
What does this mean?
A rookie WR who catches 30-39 balls in their first 8 games vs. a rookie WR who catches 10-19 balls in their first 8 games is:
4.7x more likely to have a 15.0PPG season
4.7x more likely to have a 17.5PPG season
6.3x more likely to have a 20.0PPG season
6/13
A rookie WR who catches 30-39 balls in their first 8 games vs. a rookie WR who catches 10-19 balls in their first 8 games is:
4.7x more likely to have a 15.0PPG season
4.7x more likely to have a 17.5PPG season
6.3x more likely to have a 20.0PPG season
6/13
Obviously, situation and draft capital play a big factor in the 1st 8 games of a player's career so I took another look and filtered out WRs drafted outside the 1st 4 rounds.
7/13
7/13
The results were similar, but there was a slightly smaller difference in the tiers.
8/13
8/13
Again, presented differently:
9/13
9/13
A rookie WR drafted in the 1st 4 rounds who catches 30-39 balls in their first 8 games vs. one catches 10-19 balls in their first 8 games is:
3.3x more likely to have a 15.0PPG season
4.1x more likely to have a 17.5PPG season
2.4x more likely to have a 20.0PPG season
10/13
3.3x more likely to have a 15.0PPG season
4.1x more likely to have a 17.5PPG season
2.4x more likely to have a 20.0PPG season
10/13
Here is the list of rookies to hit the 30-39 reception mark in 2019:
McLaurin
Deebo
Preston Williams
Hollywood Brown
Here is the list of rookies to hit the 10-19 reception mark in 2018 and 2019:
N'Keal Harry
Parris Campbell
11/13
McLaurin
Deebo
Preston Williams
Hollywood Brown
Here is the list of rookies to hit the 10-19 reception mark in 2018 and 2019:
N'Keal Harry
Parris Campbell
11/13
What does this mean practically?
Monitor WR production early.
If after 8 games, they fall in the 30-39 reception tier, you should be willing to pay ~3x the amount you would for a rookie WR who falls in the 10-19 reception tier. Since they are 3x more likely to hit big.
12/13
Monitor WR production early.
If after 8 games, they fall in the 30-39 reception tier, you should be willing to pay ~3x the amount you would for a rookie WR who falls in the 10-19 reception tier. Since they are 3x more likely to hit big.
12/13
Inversely, if you are the "buy-low" type. If after 8 games, you are targeting a rookie WR who falls in the 10-19 reception tier, you should only be willing to pay 1/3rd of the price you would for one in the 30-39 rec. range.
Play the odds.
13/13
Play the odds.
13/13
