The First 8 Games: A Mid-Season Buyer's Guide to Early WR Production - A Thread

We hear all the time that rookie WRs tend to get off to a slow start.

But, what about when they don't?

What type of career arc can you expect?

(1/13)

I looked at the Highest PPR points/game season for WRs who hit various receiving thresholds over their first 8 games.

I excluded 2018 and 2019 to eliminate players with only 1 or 2 years to reach their MAX PPG.

Here is what I found:

(2/13)

From 2000-2017, over their first 8 games:

137 rookies had between 10 and 19 receptions
68 had between 20 to 29 receptions
27 had between 30 and 39 receptions and
11 had 40 or more

(3/13)

Here is how each production level fared in their best PPG season:

ABOVE AVERAGE - 15.0PPG or more
GREAT - 17.5PPG or more
ELITE - 20.0PPG or more

(4/13)

Here is another way of looking at it:

(5/13)

What does this mean?

A rookie WR who catches 30-39 balls in their first 8 games vs. a rookie WR who catches 10-19 balls in their first 8 games is:

4.7x more likely to have a 15.0PPG season
4.7x more likely to have a 17.5PPG season
6.3x more likely to have a 20.0PPG season

6/13

Obviously, situation and draft capital play a big factor in the 1st 8 games of a player's career so I took another look and filtered out WRs drafted outside the 1st 4 rounds.

7/13

The results were similar, but there was a slightly smaller difference in the tiers.

8/13

Again, presented differently:

9/13

A rookie WR drafted in the 1st 4 rounds who catches 30-39 balls in their first 8 games vs. one catches 10-19 balls in their first 8 games is:

3.3x more likely to have a 15.0PPG season
4.1x more likely to have a 17.5PPG season
2.4x more likely to have a 20.0PPG season

10/13

Here is the list of rookies to hit the 30-39 reception mark in 2019:
McLaurin
Deebo
Preston Williams
Hollywood Brown

Here is the list of rookies to hit the 10-19 reception mark in 2018 and 2019:
N'Keal Harry
Parris Campbell

11/13

What does this mean practically?

Monitor WR production early.

If after 8 games, they fall in the 30-39 reception tier, you should be willing to pay ~3x the amount you would for a rookie WR who falls in the 10-19 reception tier. Since they are 3x more likely to hit big.

12/13

Inversely, if you are the "buy-low" type. If after 8 games, you are targeting a rookie WR who falls in the 10-19 reception tier, you should only be willing to pay 1/3rd of the price you would for one in the 30-39 rec. range.

Play the odds.

13/13