Read on Twitter
When Merkel or Johnson or Macron lose power, they'll have more time to relax or give speeches. When dictators like Lukashenko lose power, they often end up in prison, exile or even dead. For many of these people, it's rational to try to cling to power https://twitter.com/Nigelgd1/status/1292927872991141893
The numbers on post-tenure fate of political leaders vary considerably over region and time. How did they lose power? What kind of regime did they control? If you're interested in finding out more, check out this data:
https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/data.htm
https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/data.htm
The key thing to watch in volatile situations like this are elites. Will they continue to back the incumbent or do they think that more can be gained by switching sides? Peaceful protests succeed by removing the regime from its pillars of support
If you're a dictator in this situation, you're facing a series of impossible decisions. You want to prevent people from protesting but harming innocent people can risk a backlash. In addition, there's always the chance that your security services will refuse orders
But if protestors can openly defy your rule on the streets of the capital without severe consequences, others who had been hesitant might decide to join in. And then you have more people and that might give people the impression that the protestors are winning and on and on
That perception matters because everyone wants to be on the winning side, especially if picking the wrong side can mean losing your $, your freedom or your head. Lastly, watch the military. Coups have gone a little out of fashion but they remain a potent threat for autocrats
A lot of people have tried to forecast coups (see CoupCast below), but it's really really difficult
We have an idea of the structural factors that make coups more likely (previous coups and some leader traits, for example) but all of this ultimately comes down to individual people who make decisions with imperfect information in a really dynamic situation
Bottom line: I don't think anyone on Twitter knows what will happen in Belarus. Most of the people directly involved in Belarus probably don't even know what will happen in Belarus. I certainly have no idea. This thread became way too long, my apologies. /end
