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That Does Not Make Sense #1 The Mystery of Points Per Million
To kick off a series on FPL misconceptions (I hope will be useful for 20/21), first I'll cover "points per million" & the problems with how it's used by the community
(Look for the 
for key points) 
.
Firstly, what is points per million (ppm) ?
A player's ppm is just the points they have accrued
divided by their price 
. On the FPL website it is called "Value".
For example, in 19/20
KDB cost £9.5m & scored 251 pts. Therefore his ppm was 251/9.5 = 26.4 (1dp) 
.
?A player's ppm is just the points they have accrued
divided by their price . On the FPL website it is called "Value".For example, in 19/20
KDB cost £9.5m & scored 251 pts. Therefore his ppm was 251/9.5 = 26.4 (1dp) .
The idea is that this will give you a picture of a player's value for money, allowing you to compare players across different price ranges 
.
Then you will know whether spending £9.5m on KDB is "worth it", or whether you would be better off spreading the funds elsewhere
.
.Then you will know whether spending £9.5m on KDB is "worth it", or whether you would be better off spreading the funds elsewhere
.
By this logic 
, the best value players from last season (by end price) were:
32.7
Pope
31.3
Lundstram
30.8D Henderson
28.9
Patricio
28.7
Ryan
Hang on! There are 4 GKs here
. Does that mean GK is the most important? Obviously not. So what's really going on? 
, the best value players from last season (by end price) were:32.7
Pope31.3
Lundstram30.8
D Henderson28.9
Patricio28.7
RyanHang on! There are 4 GKs here
. Does that mean GK is the most important? Obviously not. So what's really going on?
Well, there are multiple flawed ideas at play here 
.
Firstly, ppm is a completely meaningless number in terms of how the game actually works.
You have to pick exactly 5 MIDs & have a total budget of £100m. What if every MID cost £2.0m less & your budget was £90m?
.Firstly, ppm is a completely meaningless number in terms of how the game actually works.You have to pick exactly 5 MIDs & have a total budget of £100m. What if every MID cost £2.0m less & your budget was £90m?
Then the game would be exactly the same 
! Say you spent £Xm on non-MIDs & £(100-X)m on MIDs. Then in the new game you can still spend £Xm on the same non-MIDs & £(100-X-10)m on the same MIDs as they each cost £2m less (so £10m less overall).
Nothing changes at all
...
! Say you spent £Xm on non-MIDs & £(100-X)m on MIDs. Then in the new game you can still spend £Xm on the same non-MIDs & £(100-X-10)m on the same MIDs as they each cost £2m less (so £10m less overall).Nothing changes at all
...
...except ppm. You guessed it 
, even though the game is exactly the same, suddenly the ppms for MIDs are drastically different 
.
Now the best value players are:
44.4
Cantwell
41.7Dendoncker
39.1
Douglas Luiz
38.9
Rice
38.2Grealish
Ppm does not make sense.
, even though the game is exactly the same, suddenly the ppms for MIDs are drastically different . Now the best value players are:44.4
Cantwell41.7
Dendoncker39.1
Douglas Luiz38.9
Rice38.2
GrealishPpm does not make sense
.
"But kiwi you can't only change MIDs & not the rest! That's where the problem is!"
Nope. Let's raise the prices of every player by £10m 
& increase the budget to £250m (£10m times 15 players = £150m extra).We've done the same to everyone & it's still the same game
...
...but now we get:12.2
De Bruyne11.9
TAA11.3
Ings11.2
Pope10.8
MartialThere is a more even spread which looks completely different to the 4 GKs
we saw earlier.We can even make prices 0 or negative & keep it the same game but ppm does not make sense.
Is there a better way to think about player value ? In this thread you can see an example of figuring out players' "true values" by subtracting the minimum prices of players in that position (as you are required to fill every position anyway) :
https://twitter.com/FPLRatchet/status/1290257728674377730?s=19
? In this thread you can see an example of figuring out players' "true values" by subtracting the minimum prices of players in that position (as you are required to fill every position anyway) :https://twitter.com/FPLRatchet/status/1290257728674377730?s=19
This is a reasonable start. A popular next step is to work out a minimum number of pts to associate with each position's cheapest player . Then subtract that from a player's points to get Effective Points (EP) 
, i.e. how many more they get you than the cheapest player. 
. Then subtract that from a player's points to get Effective Points (EP) , i.e. how many more they get you than the cheapest player.
For example, Rashford was £8.5m & scored 177 pts. Greenwood was £4.5m (the cheapest) & scored 103 pts 
.
So if you had Rashford then you paid £4.0m more to get 74pts more
. The value was 74/4 = 18.5 .
Is this fixed then? Let's look at the cheapest in each position
...
Rashford was £8.5m & scored 177 pts. Greenwood was £4.5m (the cheapest) & scored 103 pts .So if you had Rashford then you paid £4.0m more to get 74pts more
. The value was 74/4 = 18.5 .Is this fixed then? Let's look at the cheapest in each position
...
These were the highest scoring 
:
GK
20Martin
11McGovern
DEF
144Lundstram
84
Rico
64
Kelly
51B Williams
26Lamptey
MID
111Cantwell
100Dendoncker
90Douglas Luiz
73
Hayden
71
Saka
FWD
103Greenwood
61Connolly
39Martinelli
: GK20
Martin11
McGovern DEF144
Lundstram84
Rico64
Kelly51
B Williams26
Lamptey MID111
Cantwell100
Dendoncker90
Douglas Luiz73
Hayden71
Saka FWD103
Greenwood61
Connolly39
Martinelli
I've included enough to fill a team because that's essentially what's happening 
. We start with a base team for £64m (8×4.5m + 7×4m), & see how many more points we get by adding in different players . So in order to calculate EP (& EPpm), we'll take an average by position .
. We start with a base team for £64m (8×4.5m + 7×4m), & see how many more points we get by adding in different players . So in order to calculate EP (& EPpm), we'll take an average by position .
The averages are:
GK 15.5
DEF 73.8
MID 89.0
FWD 67.7
Now we can rate more expensive players by their "EPpm" calculated by:
EPpm = (pts - average)/(price - min)
(min = 4 or 4.5 based on position)
Note EPpm is not affected by changing prices how we did before!
GK 15.5DEF 73.8MID 89.0FWD 67.7Now we can rate more expensive players
by their "EPpm" calculated by:EPpm = (pts - average)/(price - min)
(min = 4 or 4.5 based on position)
Note EPpm is not affected by changing prices how we did before!
Let's see the top EPpms (by start price) :
GK
309Pope
289Henderson
DEF
136Baldock
118Egan
108Dunk
98Basham
92
Soyuncu
MID
82Traore
40Grealish
37Martial
32.4De Bruyne
32 Mount/Shelvey/Rice/Noble
FWD
129Ayew
87Ings
42Maupay
: GK309
Pope289
Henderson DEF136
Baldock118
Egan108
Dunk98
Basham92
Soyuncu MID82
Traore40
Grealish37
Martial32.4
De Bruyne32 Mount/Shelvey/Rice/Noble
FWD129
Ayew87
Ings42
Maupay
Now we create our wonder team, + bench/C/VC:
Pope 170 (v +22)
Lundstram 144
Baldock 142
Egan 133
KDB 251 © (+251)
Martial 200
Grealish 149
Mount 137
Ings 198
Ayew 132
Maupay 131
-
Martin (0)
Traore (55)
Dunk (38)
Soyuncu (8)
We've amassed 2161pts, surely winning... oh 
Pope 170 (v +22)
Lundstram 144
Baldock 142
Egan 133
KDB 251 © (+251)
Martial 200
Grealish 149
Mount 137
Ings 198
Ayew 132
Maupay 131
-
Martin (0)
Traore (55)
Dunk (38)
Soyuncu (8)
We've amassed 2161pts
, surely winning... oh
Above courtesy of @EricDFreeman & @FPL_Defender 
:
https://twitter.com/EricDFreeman/status/1287518781166714880?s=19
https://twitter.com/FPL_Defender/status/1287690118028046337?s=19
What happened? Well, we only spent £81.5m
. Despite the "fix", cheap players still dominate EPpm . This exposes a 2nd flaw:
Points do not increase linearly with price.
:https://twitter.com/EricDFreeman/status/1287518781166714880?s=19
https://twitter.com/FPL_Defender/status/1287690118028046337?s=19
What happened? Well, we only spent £81.5m
. Despite the "fix", cheap players still dominate EPpm . This exposes a 2nd flaw:Points do not increase linearly with price.
The fundamental idea 
in ppm is points increase linearly with price. No matter when, if you ever do pointsprice & expect a constant K, then you are drawing a line on the points vs price chart with gradient K .
Top players from the last 2 seasons show this flaw below:
in ppm is points increase linearly with price. No matter when, if you ever do pointsprice & expect a constant K, then you are drawing a line on the points vs price chart with gradient K .Top players from the last 2 seasons show this flaw below
:
Price per million is hard to fix because it relies on this flaw, and that's before we even get on to captaincy & bench players .
So how can you know which players represent the best value?
I would argue that it might be helpful to think about it differently:
.So how can you know which players represent the best value
?I would argue that it might be helpful to think about it differently
:
The best value 1-2 players per position are usually easy to spot anyway 
- you don't need a complex metric to put Pope, TAA, Lundstram, KDB, Martial, Ings, Jimenez in your team .
To fill the rest, I recommend first creating a gut feel team. You have to start somewhere!
- you don't need a complex metric to put Pope, TAA, Lundstram, KDB, Martial, Ings, Jimenez in your team .To fill the rest, I recommend first creating a gut feel team. You have to start somewhere!
Then take groups of 2-3 players and try replacing them with different combinations . Comparing these will truly tell you which potential team is best, instead of estimating with some fancy metric .
For example, if you want to know whether Aubameyang is worth £11m:
. Comparing these will truly tell you which potential team is best, instead of estimating with some fancy metric .For example, if you want to know whether Aubameyang is worth £11m
:
Simply compare a combination of Auba + 1-2 others with another combo that spreads your money differently 
.
Worried that a couple of better MIDs will give better value
? Just test it! Get a conclusive answer rather than a guess 
.
This idea is explained well here:
.Worried that a couple of better MIDs will give better value
? Just test it! Get a conclusive answer rather than a guess .This idea is explained well here
:
https://twitter.com/FPL__Raptor/status/1286615499376340998?s=19 thread by @FPL__Raptor 
If you don't know where to begin (but you do use FPL twitter), by all means check out differential & value threads - just don't use ppm alone as it really does not make sense.
Thanks for reading!
Kiwi out
thread by @FPL__Raptor If you don't know where to begin (but you do use FPL twitter
), by all means check out differential & value threads - just don't use ppm alone as it really does not make sense.Thanks for reading!
Kiwi out
PS:
With this included, this is the longest thread you can tweet in one go (25 tweets)!
Some accounts who (based on a quick search) might find this interesting: @FactsFpl @Prem_Tipster @FPLChurch @allaboutfpl @FFH_HQ @FPLTIPZ @fplreview
Feel free to discuss below...
With this included, this is the longest thread you can tweet in one go (25 tweets)
!Some accounts who (based on a quick search) might find this interesting
: @FactsFpl @Prem_Tipster @FPLChurch @allaboutfpl @FFH_HQ @FPLTIPZ @fplreviewFeel free to discuss below
...
This has had such an amazing response - thank you to everyone in the #FPLCommunity for your kind words , likes 
, RTs and mostly just bothering to read it at all 
!
I've been blown away by the support
for me, for this, and for each other 
. Thank you everyone!
, likes , RTs and mostly just bothering to read it at all !I've been blown away by the support
for me, for this, and for each other . Thank you everyone!
