German politics is dominated by Angela #Merkel. In 2021, kids will ask whether boys like @OlafScholz can become Chancellor, too. So who will win the Merkel vote? /thread

Merkel has opened up the #CDU to new voters in the centre, through her policy (U-turns) and her style. In her 16 years as chancellor, the voting population has changed, too. (Don’t tell Friedrich #Merz, he doesn’t know). /2

Those new CDU voters are centrist, #female, and have some non-German roots. Merkel secured all three of those for the CDU. Will her successors? Or will Scholz or @ABaerbock? /3

Left-leaning centrists were won over by abandoning divisive policies, at times outright adopting SPD policies, but with a CDU tilt. Think #minimumwage, conscription, gay marriage, end of nuclear etc. /4

The female vote was originally tilted heavily towards the CDU/CSU. Since the 1970s, it was about the same as the male vote. Then came #Merkel, and the gap shot up to a whopping 7.2% in 2017. /5

The migrant vote has shifted towards the #CDU *big time*, after what is arguably the biggest shift in CDU policy: more openness towards foreigners, both work migration and, famously, refugees. /6

Before 2015/16, those with foreign roots would vote left: SPD, traditionally, and Green/Left.

Since then, it has flipped. CDU/CSU now *by far* the most popular. Even FDP and ... AfD.

Top panel: those with some foreign roots, lower panel those without. /7

The #CDU really is a different party from the one #Merkel took over 20 years ago.

Forget the fight against the #AfD, the FDP will take care of those voters. The CDU will need the Merkel vote. And #Scholz and Baerbock will do their best to take it (back) from them. /end