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The battles between #Egypt’s military and #Isis in North #Sinai continue since July 21. The question is, did #Isis move the battleground from #Rafah and #SheikhZuwayyed to #BirElAbd? I think it’s too early to say but here are some facts and observations.
On July 21, #Egypt’s military spokesman said the state foiled the attack and regained control, well, none of this is true, the military actually lost control to the extent of mobilizing airforce on daily basis amidst a vicious fight against militants who hold 4 villages.
This is not an attack, but rather a new strategic campaign waged by #Isis, who many thought had lost all capability for major action and was isolated geographically and stranded without supply lines. My take last year was that #Isis is in strategic hibernation in #Sinai.
#Isis opened a route, or several, into Bir ElAbd, right under the nose of massive military presence controlling the Bardawil Lake to the north, the highway, several encampments within the villages in the south, and an hour drive from the second infantry army command in #Ismailia.
Mobilizing dozens of heavily armed fighters, explosive vehicles, IEDs, and tactically deploying/attacking suddenly doesn’t happen in days, but takes months of preparation, reconnaissance, spying, mapping, recruiting, then deciding to execute.
Apparently #Egypt’s intelligence, military intelligence, aerial surveillance, and thousands of police and army troops on the ground are either not working, or working in ways so ineffective and incompetent that #Isis has such opportunity to move, plan and wage a deadly campaign.
This is absolutely unsurprising, at least to me, since the 2004 Taba bombing, #Egypt’s entire security/military departments interpret “quite” phases as security success and control, so much that strong intelligence of terrorist presence/movement is brushed off as exaggeration.
Since 2011, I’ve interviewed Egyptian security ranks who never once admitted that they or the system misread the situation and ended up with massive losses, they always blamed something other than the system & it’s clear failure, this goes all the way up in the hierarchy.
Now this ongoing battle in Bir ElAbd is the physical evidence that #Isis is neither crippled nor stranded in #Sinai, but rather in control and dictating how the situation evolves, where the battles take place, and even capable at times of cornering the military and it’s options.
July 2013 was the first time Ansar Bayt Al-Maqdis militants strapped the roads into villages with IEDs and land mines, paralyzing the military’s ground movement, they did it again & again, while the military was never able to prep or efficiently deal with this terrorist tactic.
