1/ Thread: Testing and Schools.
Independent SAGE invited me to participate again in their last broadcast, we ran out of time for my bit but this was because @AndyBurnhamGM attended and had a lot of useful information regarding an inside look at dealing with outbreaks in his area.

2/ The DfE says they have a comprehensive hierarchy of systems of control, however the majority of measures have the caveat 'where possible' so in reality the only additional measures compared to March that have to be enforced are bubbles or keeping year groups apart.

3/ As shown here, we will be pretty much back to March.

4/ The other addition is engagenebt with Track and Trace.
In September if a student has symptoms they are sent home and need to be tested, at this point no one else is isolated. The speed they are tested and recieve results will be vitally important, because those who have been

5/ in contact could be spreading asymptomatically for several days whilst we wait for results on the symptomatic individual.

If positive then they isolate for 10 days but can return as long as they don't have a fever, even if they are still coughing or have anosmia.

6/ The thinking behind this is that these symptoms can persist after the infection has gone, however we know that infected students are less likely to have fever and that Coronavirus can persist for much longer than 10 days. The student could have been isolated for having a cough

7/ they test positive, and then 10 days later whilst they still have the cough they are expected to return to school, this will happen thousands of times and so some will be returning to school whilst still being infected. If they still have the cough should they be tested first?

8/ Sounds too similar to the scandal of seeding infections into care homes for my liking. Also issues for wider community, children still coughing allowed out of isolation, into shops, onto buses, visiting grandparents etc all without a test to confirm they're no longer infected.

9/ When a positive test is confirmed close contacts must isolate. Close contacts do not include buses and trains, only smaller vehicles like cars, this doesnt match up with masks being mandated on public transport, also with close contacts only defined as withing 1 or 2 metres

10/ there is no acknowledgement of transmission by aerosol microdroplets, particularly peculiar considering the DfE recommends masks shouldn't be worn in schools and that many classrooms are poorly ventilated with staff and students sharing the same space for hours on end.

11/ So students could have spent a week travelling on the bus with someone who tests positive and won't be expected to isolate, it appears the bus drivers will also not be notified and there's no app to pick up and notify members of the public who were also on the buses.

12/ Due to the wording around close contacts and the 'hierarchy of controls' its likely that in primary schools that the staff in the bubble will be asked to isolate, however I've seen secondary school plans where the staff won't be expected to isolate as they should be

13/ distancing 'where possible' even if in reality physical distancing is broken repeatedly. These staff will continue to move between different classes unless symptoms develop.

14/ @NickGibbUK has said that regular and mass testing is not part of the DfEs policy on education settings.

This is going to cause the wheels to come off the governments plans very quickly.

Once an individual tests positive and we have students being isolated we need testing

15/ There are two main issues, the first is that while the DfE keeps saying studenys are low risk because they're most likely to be asymptomatic, the DfE guidence and TTI procedures leaves lots of gaps for asymptomatic spread to slip through.

16/ Only those isolating who develop symptoms will get tested, the rest of their household will not be expected to isolate despite having a child who has been in close contact with a positive test and is most likely to be asymptomatic. Take into account variable incubation time

17/ and some of those isolating students could be returning to school around the same time they develop symptoms/become infectious.

The second issue is that one a positive case occurs and students start isolating we could have whole year groups out of school, good chance many

18/ won't be infected. How do already under resourced schools with staff struggling with workload issues manage to provide remote learning for hundreds of isolating students whilst also expecting to work full time in school?
In Germany or South Korea they would test all the

19/ isolating students allowing those who arent infected to return to school within a few days rather than missing two weeks of being in school.

So if its a "moral duty" for all students to be in school then why isn't gov willing to provide mass testing for isolating students?

20/ If its a moral duty then where is that testing, where is the additional funding for extra cleaning that was promised and then withdrawn after schools had spent the money, why isn't the pay rise centrally funded to prevent more budget cuts, why isnt more funding for supply

21/ provided, because once winter hits and lots of staff are isolating due to symtpoms that might or might not be Covid then supply are going to be vital to keeping schools open.

22/ Once 2 or more positive cases are confirmed we are onto dealing with an outbreak.
The Head contacts PHE and then they advise which measures to take.
I notice the wording here is 'may' so despite knowing a school has an outbreak, no testing for asymptomatic cases,

23/ whole year groups may not be asked to isolate, the school could be expected to stay open despite knowing the virus is present in the school population. The power to shut the school seems to sit with the health teams rather than the Head, I see clashs coming with H&S law.

24/ If we have an ongoing outbreak a mobile testing unit MIGHT be sent to the school.
On Friday in the zoom call Andy Burnham highlighted major issues with the mobile testing units which looks like a good proxy for schools.

25/ Large employer with 900 staff has positive case confirmed. Local health testing of close contact confirms more cases, so its an outbreak. PHE say they will send a mobile testing unit, although isolations were in place the workplace stayed open to other staff.

26/ Privately contracted mobile testing unit arrived days later, there were then 'contractual issues' with the unit refusing to test the nightshift workers because that wasn't covered by their contract. Eventually sorted but it meant it took five days before the staff were tested

27/ Five days of allowing asymptomatic spread in the workplace, in homes and into the community, will this be repeated in schools?
How many mobile units are there? If we go by school outbreaks in the last few term weeks we will need minimum of 50-70

28/ So a prediction. Its going to fall apart by October half term. Some parents, particularly from shielding homes won't send their children in, positive cases and symptoms will lead to increasing numbers in isolation, TTI, lack of testing for asymptomatic cases and inadequate

29/ measures will mean that whilst lots of students will be out of school, not enough will be done to reduce the risk of transmission and so we will be getting more local lockdowns, and it will start looking a lot like it did in March. As we head into winter many schools will

30/ find it increasingly difficult to maintain safe staffing levels, and will need to consider provision for isolating students. The NEUs call for a plan B will come to pass, by necessity many schools will have to move to blended learning. The DfE spent ages telling schools

31/ DONT prepare a Plan B. This week they changed their mind and altered the guidence to tell schools that they have to put together plans for blended learning. It would have helped if they just listened to the NEU to start with rather than waiting until middle of summer holidays

32/ giving already overworked school leaders a few weeks to now get this in place. Why did they do this? The same reason they refused the NEUs offer at the end of March to have collaborative planning for a September return, this government depends on tribalism, it depends on

33/ creating enemies to rally its troops in the media. Accepting the unions are right on a single issue undermines the false narrative they have been creating of the government vs unconstructive unions. Also if they accept we are right on one issue they open the door that the

34/ unions might be right on other issues such as school funding, high stakes testing in primary, Ofsted and academisation.

The narrative this week shows a lot about their strategic thinking. Pro gov media and MPs with their statements about the moral duty of schools returning

35/ making out as if they are preparing to fight the unions to reopen the schools, several of my colleagues in NEU have been asked in interviews about strike action and unions stopping members returning to school. This is simply a straw man, there is no ballot for strike action

36/ the NEU literally can't stop members returning to school if they want to, and the official stance is we want schools reopening but are recommending improvements to increase safety, we are also aware that schools may need to be flexible in areas with local spikes.

37/ So the government is preparing to claim victory in an imaginary fight and there will be 3 potential scenarios for September.
1. Beginning of second peak not all schools fully reopen: gov blames unions
2. Pubs shut so schools fully reopen: blame unions

38/ 3. Schools fully reopen: government declared victory against the 'hard left unions' lots of celebrations in the media and some union smearing. Will ignore the fact unions didn't oppose reopening but sought to improve the opening working collaboratively to improve measures

39/ to make staff, students and parents feel more comfortable with starting in September.
Whats the bet that the narrative will be schools reopen despite the unions rather than the true which is schools are safer because of unions?

40/ For an example of the manufactured battle narrative a perfect example is this article on conservative home.

Whats interesting is how they will react when it all falls apart because TTI and policies aren't up to scratch? https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/08/a-battle-with-teaching-unions-looks-inevitable-next-month-who-will-win.html

41/42 Who will they blame when they get their way?
What will they do after saying children don't infect staff once outbreaks are occuring in schools and staff are getting sick?
When the house of cards comes crashing down who will they blame then?

Its going to be grim.