Given what's happening in Belarus, here a few thoughts about protests (elaborating upon a quote from the source below). A protest succeeds when enough people are on the streets for an extended period of time (see Chenoweth's 3.5% rule). https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/dirigente-da-bielorrussia-tem-maior-desafio-em-26-anos-no-poder-mas-deve-se-reeleger-24574047

To get a sufficient number of people on the streets, protest leaders have to attract members of every demographic (young/old, male/female, middle class/poor). Some of those groups (young men) are more likely to turn out. But they also generate the least bad publicity if attacked.

The gov't has to limit the protests to young men because that allows it to use more force and there aren't that many young men. It does this through violence and threats of violence. The problem is that too much violence creates outrage, which drives more people to the streets.

That means the gov't must perform a careful balancing act: use enough repression to deter most potential protesters but not so much as to make people so mad they ignore risks to their own safety. Getting the exact amount right isn't easy, and varies by space and time.

The job of protesters is both easier & harder. It's easier in that they're the first movers. They can goad the gov't into overreacting (or underreacting). Their own mistakes are less important. But it's harder because the status quo favors the gov't. No screw-up=no regime change.

A lot of factors affect the likelihood of protest success. But in the end, protesters need more people on the streets, whether because the gov't represses too much or not enough. And that requires constantly testing how far the security services will go & publicizing the results.

This is why Lukashenka is cutting off the internet (can't publicize) and access to the capital (hard to get large numbers). Neither tactic is 100% effective, but protesters will need excellent organization and a lot of luck to overcome them.

As of now, every international actor that could have conceivably intervened in some way is staying out. That sharply increases Lukashenka's odds of weathering this storm. The protests won't succeed tonight, but if protester numbers don't increase soon, they can fail tonight.