Read on Twitter
// THREAD \\\\ Colts RB Landing Spot
Popular talk has been that the KC Chiefs was the best possible landing spot for a RB for fantasy. What if we’re wrong though? What if the best possible landing spot is actually the team who took the third RB off the board in the 2020 draft?
Popular talk has been that the KC Chiefs was the best possible landing spot for a RB for fantasy. What if we’re wrong though? What if the best possible landing spot is actually the team who took the third RB off the board in the 2020 draft?
ProFootballFocus graded all OL units for the year 2020. Guess who was ranked #1?
Indianapolis Colts. This unit has (and includes 2019 ranks per position #):
C Ryan Kelly, #4
G Quenton Nelson, #2
G Mark Glowinski, #23
T Braden Smith, #4
T Anthony Castonzo, #15
Indianapolis Colts. This unit has (and includes 2019 ranks per position #):
C Ryan Kelly, #4
G Quenton Nelson, #2
G Mark Glowinski, #23
T Braden Smith, #4
T Anthony Castonzo, #15
They also added FB Roosevelt Nix, well known for his run blocking ability for the Steelers (they were #1 in red zone run efficiency w Nix healthy).
Nix/R Kelly are signed through 2021.
Castonzo/Smith/Glowinski signed through 2022.
Colts have ~$79M in cap space in 2021.
Nix/R Kelly are signed through 2021.
Castonzo/Smith/Glowinski signed through 2022.
Colts have ~$79M in cap space in 2021.
This OL allowed 2019 Colts RBs to achieve:
Mack 247 car, 1091 rush yds (4.4 ypc), 8 TDs
Hines 52 car, 199 yds, 2 TDs (3.8)
JWilkins 51 car, 307 yds, 2 TDs (6.0)
Jwilliams 49 car, 235 yds, 1 TD (4.8)
See below for PFF Rush Grade by all.
Mack 247 car, 1091 rush yds (4.4 ypc), 8 TDs
Hines 52 car, 199 yds, 2 TDs (3.8)
JWilkins 51 car, 307 yds, 2 TDs (6.0)
Jwilliams 49 car, 235 yds, 1 TD (4.8)
See below for PFF Rush Grade by all.
PFF 2019 Rush Grade:
J Williams: (small sample size, 87.3)
M Mack: #28 (69.5)
J Wilkins: (69.8, small sample size)
N Hines: #48 (63.3)
@BallBlastEm highlighted RBs to have 2000+ rush yards in college. Jonathan Taylor did it. TWICE. He’s a better pure rusher than all 4 RBs.
J Williams: (small sample size, 87.3)
M Mack: #28 (69.5)
J Wilkins: (69.8, small sample size)
N Hines: #48 (63.3)
@BallBlastEm highlighted RBs to have 2000+ rush yards in college. Jonathan Taylor did it. TWICE. He’s a better pure rusher than all 4 RBs.
Many have pointed out that the Colts offense was bad in 2019. They question QB play in support of JT. Here’s a fun stat:
2019 total TDs
Chiefs 46 (30 pass, 16 rush)
Colts 39
(22 pass, 17 rush)
Phillip Rivers surely can’t be as bad as Brissett was last year.
2019 total TDs
Chiefs 46 (30 pass, 16 rush)
Colts 39
(22 pass, 17 rush)Phillip Rivers surely can’t be as bad as Brissett was last year.
Brissett had 4 of the 17 rush TDs in 2019. Rivers will not be receiving those. Another bump to JT’s upside.
Colts had 399 rush attempts from RBs in 2019.
Chiefs had 307 rush attempts.
Everyone talks about RB targets and assume CEH will have 80+ receptions in the future..
Colts had 399 rush attempts from RBs in 2019.
Chiefs had 307 rush attempts.
Everyone talks about RB targets and assume CEH will have 80+ receptions in the future..
KC Chiefs RB targets:
2017 106 targets.
2018 88 targets.
2019 107 targets.
Say CEH gets 70% tgt: 75 total.
Colts had 91 targets last year.
However, PRivers has averaged 130 targets to RBs from 2017-2019.
2019 Chargers: 177 targets
Ekeler 108 targets.
Gordon 55 targets.
2017 106 targets.
2018 88 targets.
2019 107 targets.
Say CEH gets 70% tgt: 75 total.
Colts had 91 targets last year.
However, PRivers has averaged 130 targets to RBs from 2017-2019.
2019 Chargers: 177 targets
Ekeler 108 targets.
Gordon 55 targets.
Nyheim Hines is not Austin Ekeler.
Jonathan Taylor is arguably the best RB prospect to come out of college since Saquon Barkley.
If JT were to see 40% of 130 tgt: 52 targets on the year.
Taylor could very well match Melvin Gordon’s receiving stats of 42 rec on 55 targets.
Jonathan Taylor is arguably the best RB prospect to come out of college since Saquon Barkley.
If JT were to see 40% of 130 tgt: 52 targets on the year.
Taylor could very well match Melvin Gordon’s receiving stats of 42 rec on 55 targets.
If JT sees 70% of rush atts, with a good chance of surpassing 4.8 ypc given his skillset and Colts #1 OL:
280 att - 1340 yds (4.8)
52 tgts- 40 rec (78%)
I love JTs chances at 10+ rush TDs.
I also really like JTs chances at out-rushing CEH in yardage by 350-400 yards.
280 att - 1340 yds (4.8)
52 tgts- 40 rec (78%)
I love JTs chances at 10+ rush TDs.
I also really like JTs chances at out-rushing CEH in yardage by 350-400 yards.
We shouldn’t assume CEH will get 80+ receptions. Just because KC drafted CEH first round doesn’t mean they will drastically change their scheme. They picked CEH because he’s more efficient than any RB they’ve had since Kareem Hunt. So maybe he gets 80 recs - maybe it’s 80 targets
@willson8tor recently revealed in his model that JT is the best RB prospect since Saquon. In fact, while Saquon had less than a 70% chance of breaking out, JT has a 98% chance!!
You read that correctly.. 98%!
You read that correctly.. 98%!
If I’m deciding on who to pick at 1.01 between JT and CEH, I’m siding with the RB who has the #1 ranked OL, is the best pure rushing prospect in years, produced over 2000+ yards in two (almost three!) years of college, and is on a run-heavy team who will lean on JT.
JT = 1.01
JT = 1.01
Here is David’s work on rookie RBs and chance of success!
Also, EDIT*** Saquon had an 84% chance of success. (Not 70% or less)
https://twitter.com/willson8tor/status/1290125745440698369?s=21 https://twitter.com/willson8tor/status/1290125745440698369
Also, EDIT*** Saquon had an 84% chance of success. (Not 70% or less)
https://twitter.com/willson8tor/status/1290125745440698369?s=21 https://twitter.com/willson8tor/status/1290125745440698369
**Addition: extending RB targets for Rivers and Andy Reid Chief offenses.
Rivers
2016 104 (Melvin 13 games)
2015 171
2014 109 (lead RBs Brandon Oliver and Donald Brown
)
2013 133
Chiefs
2016 90
2015 72
2014 98
2013 119 (JCharles 104)
Rivers
2016 104 (Melvin 13 games)
2015 171
2014 109 (lead RBs Brandon Oliver and Donald Brown
) 2013 133
Chiefs
2016 90
2015 72
2014 98
2013 119 (JCharles 104
)
2 additions to the thread:
1. “JT Fumbles”.. Colts RB coach Tom Rathman’s priorities: “Family is #1. Ball security is #2.” It will be fixed.
2. Some hope for 2017 Kareem #’s for CEH. KH ran 93% of rush atts for Chiefs. No one has topped 88% since (CMC ‘19). Avg is ~80%.
1. “JT Fumbles”.. Colts RB coach Tom Rathman’s priorities: “Family is #1. Ball security is #2.” It will be fixed.
2. Some hope for 2017 Kareem #’s for CEH. KH ran 93% of rush atts for Chiefs. No one has topped 88% since (CMC ‘19). Avg is ~80%.
