Thread on UFA goalie and suggested trade targets' performance over the past 3 years using evolving-hockey's Goals Saved Above Expected for all situations (5v5, 4v5 etc)

Its based on their reasonable Expected Goals metric. You can read about it here: (1/ https://rpubs.com/evolvingwild/395136/

EDM needs a 2nd goalie and names are being kicked around so I thought I'd put this information out there to help the discussions

There are 24 goalies listed, most I wouldn't go near

I "normalize" the Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) by making it "per 100 shots against" (2/

Here are their results for the 19/20 season. I color code the results as I can't help but to bin every continuous variable that I see: (3/

Results for the past 2 seasons combined: (4/

Weighted results for past 3 seasons. 19/20 - 50%, 18/19 - 30%, and 17/18 - 20%. Slighted changed weighting for Koskinen, Jarry and Demko due to missing data. Note there are some small samples in here. (5/

Lehner looks good last 2 yrs. Worth $6MM? Dunno.
I wonder if you can get Georgiev for AA or JP? Is he available?
Kosiken had a good year, nice to see.
Allen had a good bounce back year as did Reimer. Can they keep it up?
Always liked Greiss but not a good 19/20. (6/

Holtby is a big bet surrounded by some questions. Can he bounce back? Fleury did in VGK a few years ago, Rask did after some iffy years, others have not. Its a giant bet on a guy as you'd have to move Kosk out somehow to make room for the salary. (7/

I wouldn't do it and save the $ for F and D. Your mileage may vary.
Brossoit looks like a one hit wonder so far
Matt "2 rings" Murray looks like a bad bet. I don't think Jarry moves
Khudobin probably re-signs in DAL, but if he hits the market get him (8/

DAL *may* want to get Oettinger up the NHL, but they're not in a rush. He's got only 44 AHL games, is 21 and not waiver eligible for 2 more seasons. I think they re-sign Khubobin.

Dell probably cheap and reasonable. Might be a target
(9/)

He might actually be the best results/$ UFA after Kudobin.

This type of results data would be better with a richer xG that includes puck movement etc., but for publicly available data its one that most consider quite good/reasonable

Happy arguing over goalies everyone!! (10/10)