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Today on our podcast, we dropped our A1 TEs. Put a lot of research into this thread; one which will convince you that Jonnu Smith’s FLOOR is TE10.
I promise.
I personally think he has top-5 upside and I have him as TE6. Let me convince you to join the Jonnu Hype Train.
I promise.
I personally think he has top-5 upside and I have him as TE6. Let me convince you to join the Jonnu Hype Train.
Is he a good athlete? No. He’s an elite athlete.
40YD: 88th percentile
Speed Score: 84th percentile
Burst Score: 94th percentile
Catch Radius: 82nd percentile
College Dominator: 92nd percentile
Breakout Age: 100th percentile
Everything you’d look for in a breakout candidate.
40YD: 88th percentile
Speed Score: 84th percentile
Burst Score: 94th percentile
Catch Radius: 82nd percentile
College Dominator: 92nd percentile
Breakout Age: 100th percentile
Everything you’d look for in a breakout candidate.
“But Christian, not all elite athletes are good tight ends!” This is accurate. Take Mike Gesicki for example
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The difference is that Jonnu catches everything. On limited work, he ranked 4th in the league in TE Catch Rate, catching 35 of his 44 targets. He is not pictured below.
The difference is that Jonnu catches everything. On limited work, he ranked 4th in the league in TE Catch Rate, catching 35 of his 44 targets. He is not pictured below.
In 2019, Jonnu posted a Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) of 25.6%, per @fboutsiders. This means that Jonnu was 25.6% better than the average TE.
That was good for 6th in the entire NFL among qualifying tight ends.
That was good for 6th in the entire NFL among qualifying tight ends.
His Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (also from @fboutsiders - y’all are amazing) sat at 91 yards.
This was good for 9th in the league among tight ends.
This was good for 9th in the league among tight ends.
He was the 2nd-best TE at racking up the YAC on a per reception basis, finishing only behind Noah Fant*.
*Noah Fant had a 75-yard touchdown catch, swaying the YAC/R in his favor.
Bottom line: he’s elite after the catch.
*Noah Fant had a 75-yard touchdown catch, swaying the YAC/R in his favor.
Bottom line: he’s elite after the catch.
Part of the reason for that is the amount of broken tackles he accrues. He ranked 5th in TE broken tackles and 10th in the entire league (RB, WR, and TEs).
He’s the tight end version of Derrick Henry.
He’s the tight end version of Derrick Henry.
None of this matters if Jonnu’s volume doesn’t come up, right?
I GUARANTEE it will. The Titans have 103 vacated targets. In their low-volume passing attack, that accounts for 24.1% of ALL TARGETS.
Delanie Walker had 31 of those targets.. get where I’m going with this?
I GUARANTEE it will. The Titans have 103 vacated targets. In their low-volume passing attack, that accounts for 24.1% of ALL TARGETS.
Delanie Walker had 31 of those targets.. get where I’m going with this?
Furthering that point, and in one of the more shocking statistics, the Titans have around 30% of their inside-10 targets available.
Jonnu’s TD upsidehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend">
Jonnu’s TD upside
Did you know that Jonnu was TE13 from Week 7 - when Ryan Tannehill took over - on? He’s already shown us he has the potential of a TE1.
He ranked 10th in FPTS/Routes Run and 3rd in FPTS/Target (2.33).
He ranked 10th in FPTS/Routes Run and 3rd in FPTS/Target (2.33).
An increase of 30 targets alone at a pace of 2.33 FPTS/Target would get him 69.9 (nice) more FPTS.
That would have been good for TE7 in 2019. Let’s go to Jonnu live for his reaction:
That would have been good for TE7 in 2019. Let’s go to Jonnu live for his reaction:
The counter arguments I got were “Corey Davis is still a thing” and “they’re going to run the ball.”
1. Corey Davis can still be a thing and Jonnu be more of a thing.
2. They’re going to run the ball less. They’ve had key pieces leave, so game scripts may favor the pass more.
1. Corey Davis can still be a thing and Jonnu be more of a thing.
2. They’re going to run the ball less. They’ve had key pieces leave, so game scripts may favor the pass more.
Jonnu is cemented as the Titans TE1, and let me tell you, he is an absolute BARGAIN at his ADP of TE17.
Recency bias would have me call him the 2020 version of Darren Waller.
I’m willing to reach on Jonnu everywhere, mostly because the ROI will be insane.
Recency bias would have me call him the 2020 version of Darren Waller.
I’m willing to reach on Jonnu everywhere, mostly because the ROI will be insane.
Draft Jonnu Smith. Thank me laterhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😉" title="Zwinkerndes Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Zwinkerndes Gesicht">
