It’s not getting much headlines but biggest issue in #Israel politics right now is battle over budget & possible new (4th) elex. Seriously.

Standoff bw Likud & Blue-White over ~3 month budget vs ~15 month budget. Why does this matter? <Thread>

2/ In coalition agmnt forming "national unity emergency corona govt" Netanyahu & Gantz agreed on 2-year budget

BUT – budget clause (non-passage) was *only* issue that allows Bibi to remain PM if govt falls. All other issues would see Gantz become PM of transition govt

3/ Major hole clear to all who read agmnt. So what is Bibi trying to do?
-Renege on 2 yr budget. Despite all pro econ advice budget for few months nonsensical
-Threaten elex so Gantz caves, agrees to it
-Keep elex option open for early 2021 after breakdown in new budget talks

4/ State of play:
-Gantz holding firm to ‘2 yr budget’ despite cratering poll #'s
-But Bibi’s position (econ, COVID) not great either
-Some believe elex possible due to BB desire to preempt real start of his trial (Jan ’21) in bid for 61-seat majority
-Budget deadline August 25

5/ Final thoughts: Most likely outcome is compromise/extension that pushes debate to Oct/Nov. But it’ll prob come down to wire depending on poll #’s

Yet again entire country’s fate tied to whims of 1 man & his political/legal future. No matter COVID, economy, 4th elex. Just Bibi

Addendum: Speculation Bibi has added motive to preempt start of trial - fear/paranoia that Attorney General & Supreme Court will 'incapacitate' him from continuing as PM in Jan '21. I'm skeptical. Same bodies allowed him to run & form govt. But doesn't mean BB doesn't believe it.