The ECB and the EU Commission need to start developing contingency plans and conditionality for EU cooperation with the IMF if emergency assistance packages for the Turkish economy are needed.

You could call it the Troyka option.

Any assistance for Turkey would be run through the IMF, but EU institutions would have to also play a central role because of how the Turkish state and economy are intertwined with the European banking and supply chain systems

For the EU, and for Italy, Germany, Malta and Spain in particular, Turkey is too big to fail.

As with previous Turkish system crises in the 1970s and 1990s, European institutions and EU member states, even Greece and Cyprus, will both be frustrated with Turkish state bluster and afraid of Turkish economic collapse