#swfc -12 points for 2020-21. What does that points deduction mean for us then - and what could it mean for the future?

Below a thread looking into:

1) How does P&S work again?

2) What does it all mean?

3) How much can we spend now then?
P&S, Profitability & Sustainability. The @EFL& #39;s version of UEFA& #39;s Financial Fair Play.

It means we cannot lose more than £39m in the current season and the two seasons before that combined.

At the end of 2019-20 that £39m limit was for the period July 2017 to June 2020.
The loss limit of £39m is always for a rolling three years - and that& #39;s key.

Wolves, when winning the division in 2017-18, lost £31m that season alone.

But because they only lost a combined £5m in the previous two seasons, they didn& #39;t break the £39m limit (via @SwissRamble):
Even if you get away with breaking the £39m limit once, because it& #39;s a rolling three years the "hangover" from bad decisions and bad finances can last a long time.

Not until the end of next season, 20-21, do we get rid of the "hangover" from the spendathons of 16-17 and 17-18.
We& #39;re still waiting for the full verdict of the Independent Disciplinary Commission - even the @EFL are yet to receive it.

But it& #39;s fair to assume, so far, that:

1) The sale of Hillsborough is moved from the 17-18 to the 18-19 accounts.

2) The sale price of £60m is okay.
If we move the sale of Hillsborough from 17-18 to the 18-19 accounts, we get a £17m breach of the £39m limit for the period 2015-2018.

Which is why our deduction is 12 points as it& #39;s above the upper limit of a breach of £15m established in last year ( #page=11">https://www.efl.com/contentassets/c79763f8e2174f4fb87200a371abf5fa/190322---efl-v-bcfc---decision---final.pdf #page=11):">https://www.efl.com/contentas...
Look again at that first image: While we& #39;re in breach for the rolling three years 2015-2018, we stay just inside the £39m limit for the rolling three years 2016-2019 as well as 2017-2020.

No further deductions for what we HAVE done then:
But what about the future - next season (20-21) and the season after (21-22)?

Will we break the £39m limit for the 2018-2021 and 2019-2022 periods?

Lots of even more expiring contracts mean our expenses - and losses - dwindle as quickly as the size of the playing squad:
Even if we spend £17m on wages and amortised transfer fees in both 2020-21 and 2021-22, we should still stay inside the £39m limit for the three rolling years ending in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

Should we just go out and splash all that cash then? No.
Since the January 2018 we& #39;ve recruited/extended a lot less expensively: All the names in green in the image below.

Especially compared to some of the "heavy weighters", who signed or were given new contracts in the 15-16 and 16-17 seasons (the names in red):
In fact the average yearly wage of the "heavy weighters" was £1.3m.

For the new recruits, from 2018 onwards, it& #39;s only £450k - a significant reduction in costs:
If we, as has been mooted, recruit from the free agent and loan market this summer, we should be paying little, if anything, in transfer fees.

6 more players (for a squad of 24), on wages of £500k a year each, is "just" another £3m and would take wage costs for 2020-21 to £19m.
That& #39;s still 142% of revenue, as revenue will also fall due to Covid-19: Lower match day income, fewer merchandise sales and lower broadcast income due to EPL paying broadcasters a rebate.
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