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what we never see from proponents of opening the border is any numbers. so, here we go.
There's no point doing it unless it generates a lot of money/jobs.
Let's say we want a billion extra GDP, roughly equal to 10,000 jobs.
How many tourists, intl students do we need?...
There's no point doing it unless it generates a lot of money/jobs.
Let's say we want a billion extra GDP, roughly equal to 10,000 jobs.
How many tourists, intl students do we need?...
The average tourist adds just $4k to GDP and visits for about 2 weeks. frankly, they're not going to come when isolation will cost them at least that much & take that long.
intl students? they each contribute 40k to GDP on average and stay longer. so focus on them....
intl students? they each contribute 40k to GDP on average and stay longer. so focus on them....
we would need to take in 25k intl students to create $1b GDP/10,000 jobs
25k x 14 days isolation = 350k bed/nights. bring them in over 2 months, that's 6k beds. means doubling current capacity
So, there's q 1 for proponents- where are you getting 6k secure self contained rooms?
25k x 14 days isolation = 350k bed/nights. bring them in over 2 months, that's 6k beds. means doubling current capacity
So, there's q 1 for proponents- where are you getting 6k secure self contained rooms?
Now, let's look at risk. ~1% of arrivals have COVID. 25k students, so we're talking importing 250 cases.
a recent health report estimated a 0.1% chance of a case slipping through the border. 250×0.1% = 25%.
So, for a billion dollars we're talking a 1 in 4 chance of outbreak...
a recent health report estimated a 0.1% chance of a case slipping through the border. 250×0.1% = 25%.
So, for a billion dollars we're talking a 1 in 4 chance of outbreak...
actually, much higher because we would have to use inappropriate facilities as nearly every appropriate, available hotel in the country is being used already. call it 1 in 3
lvl 4 lockdown cost ~$2b GDP a week. lockdowns need to last at least 4 weeks & have ongoing costs after..
lvl 4 lockdown cost ~$2b GDP a week. lockdowns need to last at least 4 weeks & have ongoing costs after..
another national lockdown would cost at least $8b. probably much more. even localised lockdowns will run into hundreds of millions/billions, x0.33 chance it happens, still hundreds of millions to billions expected cost
this is order of magnitude costing. what it shows is the expected cost in outbreaks from bringing in intl students is around or above the extra GDP they would bring in.
we need too many of them to be worthwhile, which creates too much risk
And. we. don't. have. the facilities..
we need too many of them to be worthwhile, which creates too much risk
And. we. don't. have. the facilities..
now, where there are small numbers of people who add a lot more to gdp (like millions per head) and can be managed in proper isolation because there aren't too many of them, the equation is in favour of doing that... and that's what's happening with film crews & sports teams.
