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1/ What would Aubameyang be worth as a mid? [Thread]
I’ll be taking a look at the statistics behind his performances, whether he would get more or less points as a midfielder, and what price I would be happy purchasing him at. #FPL
I’ll be taking a look at the statistics behind his performances, whether he would get more or less points as a midfielder, and what price I would be happy purchasing him at. #FPL
2/ I'll start by saying that statistically Auba had his worst season so far at arsenal:
16.35xG, 4.49xA
Compared to the season before:
23.55xG, 4.99xA (in 400 less minutes)
#FPL
16.35xG, 4.49xA
Compared to the season before:
23.55xG, 4.99xA (in 400 less minutes)
#FPL
3/ I'm going to make an assumption that this is due to a positional change, and I expect the reduction in attacking returns to remain.
Another point historically, is that during the 2018/19 campaign, Auba under-performed his xG by 1.55. He only scored 22 goals. #FPL
Another point historically, is that during the 2018/19 campaign, Auba under-performed his xG by 1.55. He only scored 22 goals. #FPL
4/ In the 2019/20 season, he over-performed his xG by 5.65 goals, scoring 22.
Over the course of his career, Auba was predicted to score 140.46 goals. He scored 139. This means that statistically, you can expect him to score the goals he is predicted to by the xG model. #FPL
Over the course of his career, Auba was predicted to score 140.46 goals. He scored 139. This means that statistically, you can expect him to score the goals he is predicted to by the xG model. #FPL
5/ I will be taking this assumption forwards in my calculations (That Aubameyang will on average score the amount of goals predicted by xG).
The following calculations will be done using per 90 statistics. #FPL
The following calculations will be done using per 90 statistics. #FPL
6/ On average over the last 2.5 years Auba has been in the prem, he has started ~91% of a games (79/87). He has completed on average 3020 mins a season (34.58 starts). #FPL
7/ I will assume this number going forward in my predictions.
Over 3,177 minutes (in premier league), playing the position of FORWARD, Auba has averaged an xG90 of 0.65.
Compare this to when he is playing elsewhere (FWL, AML, AMR 2,505 mins), he averages an xG90 of 0.48. #FPL
Over 3,177 minutes (in premier league), playing the position of FORWARD, Auba has averaged an xG90 of 0.65.
Compare this to when he is playing elsewhere (FWL, AML, AMR 2,505 mins), he averages an xG90 of 0.48. #FPL
8/ Aubameyang played a total of 15 games as a FORWARD this season, however 13 of these came in the first 19 games of the season. Only 2 in the second half. Because of this, I am going to pessimistically assume he will only play ~4 games as a FW next year. #FPL
9/ This gives the xG90 of ~0.5.
Using this number, we can estimate the xG of Auba for the coming season. (3020 / 90) * 0.5 = 16.8 xG
On average he gets 5 assists a season, and 2 "fantasy assists" I'll use the number of 7 going forwards. #FPL
Using this number, we can estimate the xG of Auba for the coming season. (3020 / 90) * 0.5 = 16.8 xG
On average he gets 5 assists a season, and 2 "fantasy assists" I'll use the number of 7 going forwards. #FPL
10/ Since joining arsenal, Auba has been involved in 21 cleansheets in 87 games. However, I am going to make an assumption that Arteta's vision is coming in to play. Therefore I will take the number of 7 cleans, in the last 19 games of the season. #FPL
11/ Predicting 14 clean sheet points for Auba as a mid.
Let's now have a look at projected points:
On average Auba makes 2 sub appearances a season. Combine this with his 34.5 starts gives him 71 base points. #FPL
Let's now have a look at projected points:
On average Auba makes 2 sub appearances a season. Combine this with his 34.5 starts gives him 71 base points. #FPL
12/ Negatively, he gets 2 yellows and 0 reds (his red this season was first of his career) and has also missed ~1 penalty a season. This combines to -4 points a season, bringing our points total to 67.
Take our clean sheet number of 14, this brings the points total to 81. #FPL
Take our clean sheet number of 14, this brings the points total to 81. #FPL
13/ Add on 16.8 goals at 5 a piece (84) and 7 assists at 3 (21) gives us a total of 186.
Finally I'll look at his bonus points. In 2019/20 Auba gained 37 bonus points. #FPL
Finally I'll look at his bonus points. In 2019/20 Auba gained 37 bonus points. #FPL
14/ Had he been a midfielder (6 less bps a goal), he would have gained 7 less bonus this season, giving him a total of 30. Add this on to give him a total of 216 points.
With an estimated output of 216 points, I would be happy putting Auba in my team for 11.5m and under. #FPL
With an estimated output of 216 points, I would be happy putting Auba in my team for 11.5m and under. #FPL
15/ A quick point is that since joining the prem, Auba has over-performed his "expected FPL points" by 7%. Should he continue this, I would expect him to receive around 231 points in the 2020/21 season. Making him worth 12m (12.5m in good fixtures). #FPL
16/ For context, Mane got 221 and Salah got 233.
It's also worth noting that should he return to a FORWARD position, and get similar xG numbers to previous seasons, Auba would be on for 260+ points. #FPL
It's also worth noting that should he return to a FORWARD position, and get similar xG numbers to previous seasons, Auba would be on for 260+ points. #FPL
17/ Lastly, Aubameyang scored 0.3 goals on average against the rest of the (conventional) top 6, and 0.68 goals against the rest of the league. If the fixtures are good at the start I would highly recommend getting him in. #FPL
18/ TL:DR I expect Auba to get between 216 and 231 points as a mid, and believe him to be a great deal under 11.5m and a consideration at 12m. If fixtures are good to start the season, I would consider him up to 12.5/13. #FPL
