A few days ago I asked the question "Is Missouri becoming a new COVID-19 hotspot?" It looked that way because daily new cases were rising rapidly, approaching TX, AZ, and others, whose daily new cases were falling. 1/7 https://twitter.com/HammondInst/status/1291104796762607616

Sure enough, a day or two after my question, Missouri's numbers took a sharp turn for the better. New cases and the positivity rate are still high, but had fallen. Daily deaths had risen, but remained pretty low, and began falling along with hospitalizations. 2/7

I hadn't seen sharp reversals like this in other states, so I was skeptical. Nonetheless, the trends have continued for a few more days and have been statewide. 3/7

Still, something odd has been happening, and it could be something good or something that makes the data anomalous. For one thing, the age mix of new cases was very different. New cases last week were predominantly in their 40s and 50s instead of being under 40. 4/7

It's possible that testing had shifted away from those under 40 and toward older age groups who are less likely to be infected. If so, then perhaps the new trends are anomalous. 5/7

On the other hand, given that testing is at the same level but is finding fewer positives, maybe those under 40 are less-infected than they had been and/or the measures taken in the largest counties have had their desired effects. 6/7

Without better data than the state makes readily available (MO is very bad at this), I'm a bit stumped. I'm rooting for the sharp turn to be real, but it will take a few more days of the trend to convince me. 7/7