I came across the latest @eu_eeas blog post by @JosepBorrellF only today

It's really a must read on #China

Tho clad in diplomatic language, it's a geopolitical that would have been unthinkable just few months ago

Few takeaways in this thread (1/14) https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage_en/83644/China,%20the%20United%20States%20and%20us

1st key quote:

"US-China strategic rivalry will probably be the dominant organising principle for global politics" regardless of who the next US president is

May sound obvious to political analyst, but framing relations like this was never straightforward for

(2/14)

2nd passage:

"As for Europe, we need to be clear where we stand" and be guided by our "values and interests"

Nothing new here. But it goes on:

"This does not mean we should be equidistant from the two protagonists"

And here, it starts getting real

(3/14)

@JosepBorrellF continues:

and are "political cousins", "committed to political pluralism, individual rights, media freedom and checks and balances"

"The combination of this shared history and shared values creates, a priori, a close affinity between us"

(4/14)

On the other hand, is a whole different cup of tea - as it was "built on values and a political regime that are very different" from Europe's

And here we come to the true turning point...

(5/14)

...

"the economic development of China and the growth of its middle class has not resulted in a marked evolution towards democracy", @JosepBorrellF says

"The idea of ‘convergence through trade’ has disappeared"

BOOM

(6/14)

A little context to appreciate the magnitude of this:

"Convergence through trade" roughly equals the German expression "Wandel durch Handel" - "change through trade"

It's the official government stance towards and it was recently defended by @peteraltmaier himself

(7/14)

Is "Wandel durch Handel" just wishful thinking?

As @Doranimated argues in the excellent piece below, "the theory's exclusive focus on economics" may have shadowed other "factors - cultural, political, and demographic - of equal or greater weight"

(8/14) https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/china-middle-eastern-kingdom

Illusion or reality, "convergence through trade" was also the line on

Is it still so? Reading @JosepBorrellF, we doubt it:

"People respect China, but many also fear it" - "the idea of a mighty, benevolent power is fading" - China has become "somewhat friendless"

(9/14)

will still engage with , "even if difficult", as China "has necessarily to be part of global solutions to planet-size problems" like Covid-19 and climate change

In there's no trend toward "strategic rivalry" nor a "broad economic decoupling" from

Yet...

(10/14)

Yet, Brussels and Washington share "a number of deep concerns on the substance of Chinese behaviour that must be addressed"

... and is losing patience:

"[D]espite Chinese commitments", "there is insufficient follow through"

(11/14)

In the final passage, @JosepBorrellF is explicit:

there is a "China challenge" that is part of a wider "rise in authoritarian powers"

"like-minded democracies" need to step up their cooperation to fend them off

and should be "at the heart of this effort"

12/14)

Let's be clear

If the EU follows through with what this article argues, it would be a major turning point in its China policy

From an approach of "convergence through trade" to a policy of confrontation and perhaps containment

(13/14)

And let's not forget the timing of this publication

There's still a trade deal being negotiated between and

And guiding @EUCouncil there's now Germany, which has so far being quite permissive toward China

But perhaps times are a-changin'

(14/14) https://www.politico.eu/article/why-post-merkel-germany-will-change-its-tune-on-china/