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I came across the latest @eu_eeas blog post by @JosepBorrellF only today
It& #39;s really a must read on #China
Tho clad in diplomatic language, it& #39;s a geopolitical
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💣" title="Bombe" aria-label="Emoji: Bombe"> that would have been unthinkable just few months ago
Few takeaways in this thread (1/14) https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage_en/83644/China,%20the%20United%20States%20and%20us">https://eeas.europa.eu/headquart...
It& #39;s really a must read on #China
Tho clad in diplomatic language, it& #39;s a geopolitical
Few takeaways in this thread (1/14) https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage_en/83644/China,%20the%20United%20States%20and%20us">https://eeas.europa.eu/headquart...
1st key quote:
"US-China strategic rivalry will probably be the dominant organising principle for global politics" regardless of who the next US president is
May sound obvious to political analyst, but framinghttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China"> relations like this was never straightforward for https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union">
(2/14)
"US-China strategic rivalry will probably be the dominant organising principle for global politics" regardless of who the next US president is
May sound obvious to political analyst, but framing
(2/14)
2nd passage:
"As for Europe, we need to be clear where we stand" and be guided by our "values and interests"
Nothing new here. But it goes on:
"This does not mean we should be equidistant from the two protagonists"
And here, it starts getting realhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔥" title="Feuer" aria-label="Emoji: Feuer">
(3/14)
"As for Europe, we need to be clear where we stand" and be guided by our "values and interests"
Nothing new here. But it goes on:
"This does not mean we should be equidistant from the two protagonists"
And here, it starts getting real
(3/14)
@JosepBorrellF continues:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> and https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten"> are "political cousins", "committed to political pluralism, individual rights, media freedom and checks and balances"
"The combination of this shared history and shared values creates, a priori, a close affinity between us"
(4/14)
"The combination of this shared history and shared values creates, a priori, a close affinity between us"
(4/14)
On the other hand, https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China"> is a whole different cup of tea - as it was "built on values and a political regime that are very different" from Europe& #39;s
And here we come to the true turning point...
(5/14)
And here we come to the true turning point...
(5/14)
...
"the economic development of China and the growth of its middle class has not resulted in a marked evolution towards democracy", @JosepBorrellF says
"The idea of ‘convergence through trade’ has disappeared"
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💥" title="Symbol für eine Kollision" aria-label="Emoji: Symbol für eine Kollision"> BOOM https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💥" title="Symbol für eine Kollision" aria-label="Emoji: Symbol für eine Kollision">
(6/14)
"the economic development of China and the growth of its middle class has not resulted in a marked evolution towards democracy", @JosepBorrellF says
"The idea of ‘convergence through trade’ has disappeared"
(6/14)
A little context to appreciate the magnitude of this:
"Convergence through trade" roughly equals the German expression "Wandel durch Handel" - "change through trade"
It& #39;s the officialhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇩🇪" title="Flagge von Deutschland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Deutschland"> government stance towards https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China"> and it was recently defended by @peteraltmaier himself
(7/14)
"Convergence through trade" roughly equals the German expression "Wandel durch Handel" - "change through trade"
It& #39;s the official
(7/14)
Is "Wandel durch Handel" just wishful thinking?
As @Doranimated argues in the excellent piece below, "the theory& #39;s exclusive focus on economics" may have shadowed other "factors - cultural, political, and demographic - of equal or greater weight"
(8/14) https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/china-middle-eastern-kingdom">https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/...
As @Doranimated argues in the excellent piece below, "the theory& #39;s exclusive focus on economics" may have shadowed other "factors - cultural, political, and demographic - of equal or greater weight"
(8/14) https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/china-middle-eastern-kingdom">https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/...
Illusion or reality, "convergence through trade" was also the https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> line on https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China">
Is it still so? Reading @JosepBorrellF, we doubt it:
"People respect China, but many also fear it" - "the idea of a mighty, benevolent power is fading" - China has become "somewhat friendless"
(9/14)
Is it still so? Reading @JosepBorrellF, we doubt it:
"People respect China, but many also fear it" - "the idea of a mighty, benevolent power is fading" - China has become "somewhat friendless"
(9/14)
In
Yet...
(10/14)
Yet, Brussels and Washington share "a number of deep concerns on the substance of Chinese behaviour that must be addressed"
... andhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> is losing patience:
"[D]espite Chinese commitments", "there is insufficient follow through"
(11/14)
... and
"[D]espite Chinese commitments", "there is insufficient follow through"
(11/14)
In the final passage, @JosepBorrellF is explicit:
there is a "China challenge" that is part of a wider "rise in authoritarian powers"https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚠️" title="Warnsignal" aria-label="Emoji: Warnsignal">
"like-minded democracies" need to step up their cooperation to fend them offhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤝" title="Handschlag" aria-label="Emoji: Handschlag">
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> and https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten"> should be "at the heart of this effort"
12/14)
there is a "China challenge" that is part of a wider "rise in authoritarian powers"
"like-minded democracies" need to step up their cooperation to fend them off
12/14)
Let& #39;s be clear
If the EU follows through with what this article argues, it would be a major turning point in its China policyhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔀" title="Verbogene nach rechts zeigende Pfeile" aria-label="Emoji: Verbogene nach rechts zeigende Pfeile">
From an approach of "convergence through trade" to a policy of confrontation and perhaps containment
(13/14)
If the EU follows through with what this article argues, it would be a major turning point in its China policy
From an approach of "convergence through trade" to a policy of confrontation and perhaps containment
(13/14)
And let& #39;s not forget the timing of this publication
There& #39;s still a trade deal being negotiated betweenhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇪🇺" title="Flagge der Europäischen Union" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Europäischen Union"> and https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flagge von China" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von China">
And guiding @EUCouncil there& #39;s now Germany, which has so far being quite permissive toward China
But perhaps times are a-changin& #39;
(14/14) https://www.politico.eu/article/why-post-merkel-germany-will-change-its-tune-on-china/">https://www.politico.eu/article/w...
There& #39;s still a trade deal being negotiated between
And guiding @EUCouncil there& #39;s now Germany, which has so far being quite permissive toward China
But perhaps times are a-changin& #39;
(14/14) https://www.politico.eu/article/why-post-merkel-germany-will-change-its-tune-on-china/">https://www.politico.eu/article/w...
