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Analysis time. Here are the official results for the GOP Kansas Senate Primary, side by side with the results if Kobach and Hamilton (the two most Right-Wing candidates) had their votes combined. K/H combined wins with 45%, beating Roger Marshall& #39;s 40%.
Using this, we can assume that one of the, if not the primary factor in Kobach& #39;s loss was Hamilton vote splitting him. Hamilton is another very Trumpist candidate (he often campaigned with MAGA hat on head). He also hails from Miami county, in a region described as Kobach& #39;s base.
Another interesting thing to note is that the combined vote for both Kobach and Hamilton, and even Kobach& #39;s stand alone vote, matches up very neatly with the swing/trend to Trump in the 2016 GE.
It also matches up neatly with my Kansas ideology map from two days ago. I even got Sherman county right, as I inferred it to be RW populist based on Trump swing percentages, and it also was the only west KS county to vote for the K/H combined vote. Does anyone know what& #39;s there?
Compared to the 2018 Gubernatorial Primary, in which Kobach won against incumbent moderate Colyer with the help of Trump& #39;s endorsement, Kobach clearly underperformed everywhere, but especially in the west, where Marshall& #39;s house seat is.
Overall, it appears Kobach lost mainly due to Hamilton vote splitting him, not because of internal weakness. Thoughts? Give your input!
