Read on Twitter
Analysis time. Here are the official results for the GOP Kansas Senate Primary, side by side with the results if Kobach and Hamilton (the two most Right-Wing candidates) had their votes combined. K/H combined wins with 45%, beating Roger Marshall's 40%.
Using this, we can assume that one of the, if not the primary factor in Kobach's loss was Hamilton vote splitting him. Hamilton is another very Trumpist candidate (he often campaigned with MAGA hat on head). He also hails from Miami county, in a region described as Kobach's base.
Another interesting thing to note is that the combined vote for both Kobach and Hamilton, and even Kobach's stand alone vote, matches up very neatly with the swing/trend to Trump in the 2016 GE.
It also matches up neatly with my Kansas ideology map from two days ago. I even got Sherman county right, as I inferred it to be RW populist based on Trump swing percentages, and it also was the only west KS county to vote for the K/H combined vote. Does anyone know what's there?
Compared to the 2018 Gubernatorial Primary, in which Kobach won against incumbent moderate Colyer with the help of Trump's endorsement, Kobach clearly underperformed everywhere, but especially in the west, where Marshall's house seat is.
Overall, it appears Kobach lost mainly due to Hamilton vote splitting him, not because of internal weakness. Thoughts? Give your input!
