Let's take a look at how the next few weeks might play out in the tropics. The MDR remains extremely warm, and a WWB that just occurred should warm it further. An EWB (spawned by a suppressive CCKW) may cool it off after, but it will remain very warm. (1/4)

Let's talk more about that suppressive CCKW. It is currently moving through the Atlantic and will bring stronger trades and more shear. This will make it harder for TCG to occur, but not impossible as Gonzalo proved to us. (2/4)

After the suppressive CCKW moves through, an enhanced CCKW should follow. The EPS forecasts this to give a big boost to the ASW. It will be mid-August at this point, and climo will stop being a negative factor. I believe this is when the season could really get going. (3/4)

The only negative factor to watch is the overall stability that has remained in the MDR. Shear and SAL are very low and SSTs are very warm. If the MDR stability gives way, watch for an explosion of activity starting mid-late August.