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This poll certainly took an unexpected turn as the Canada 
option which I added as a joke, got the most votes
For now, letâs address the issue of restriction of forex for Maize
importation & whether itâs a good idea or totally unnecessary.
Stay with me
#AgricPolls https://twitter.com/eletavalentine/status/1290325864299868160
option which I added as a joke, got the most votesFor now, letâs address the issue of restriction of forex for Maize
importation & whether itâs a good idea or totally unnecessary.Stay with me
#AgricPolls https://twitter.com/eletavalentine/status/1290325864299868160
In a move ostensibly made to boost local production, Nigeriaâs CBN blocked access to FOREX for corn imports even though the move is expected to add to already high food inflation.
On one hand, the move offers some advantages; it will encourage local investment in Maize production
On one hand, the move offers some advantages; it will encourage local investment in Maize production
Reduce pressure in FOREX, improve our food security & create opportunities along the value chain, etc.
However, it can be argued that the move is unnecessary - even counterproductive.
First of all, the fraction of maize Nigeria imports I compared to consumption is very small
However, it can be argued that the move is unnecessary - even counterproductive.
First of all, the fraction of maize Nigeria imports I compared to consumption is very small
Consumption is around 11.3million tons while local production is roughly 11million tons, meaning imports is just around 300k tons. How much pressure does 300k tons/annum of maize put on FOREX?
especially compared to other non-food products we import.
especially compared to other non-food products we import.
A major concern about the import restriction is the timing! This year 2020 hasnât been particularly merciful to farmers. COVID19 trouble, combined with unpredictable rainfall and army worm 
attacks have severely affected maize yields this year. Thereâs likely to be severe
attacks have severely affected maize yields this year. Thereâs likely to be severe
impacts on industries (such as livestock feed mills, especially poultry) that depend upon maize as their main raw material. These industries are already suffering the high prices as result of supply shortages. The ban would only exacerbate the problem & cause rise in food prices
Including eggs & poultry products for an already impoverished population.
Another argument against the ban (we may as well call it that) on maize importation is that the cost of production & logistics in Nigeria are too high & no policy & infrastructural measures have been
Another argument against the ban (we may as well call it that) on maize importation is that the cost of production & logistics in Nigeria are too high & no policy & infrastructural measures have been
put in place to reduce our costs to ensure we can produce at locally & internationally competitive prices. This means even as prices rise, Nigerians will be forced to buy at ridiculously high prices or find cheaper alternatives to maize.
This may be a good time to point out that maize is on the Nigerian export prohibition list. This means we canât export maize from Nigeria to other countries.
If the goal of increasing local production is somehow achieved and our local production exceeds consumption, what happens
If the goal of increasing local production is somehow achieved and our local production exceeds consumption, what happens
to the excess maize?
Basic economics states that when supply exceeds demand, market forces would lead to a crash in prices.
What happens to the farmers who rushed in to plant maize with expectations of profit from rise in prises? Theyâre disappointed & refuse to plant next year
Basic economics states that when supply exceeds demand, market forces would lead to a crash in prices.
What happens to the farmers who rushed in to plant maize with expectations of profit from rise in prises? Theyâre disappointed & refuse to plant next year
and so continues the annoying cycle of high Agricultural product prices in one year and low prices in another year 
making industrial planning difficult.
How can We avert this situation and make the maize import ban a net gain for Nigeria?
making industrial planning difficult.How can We avert this situation and make the maize import ban a net gain for Nigeria?
First, we much address the issues which result in our low agricultural productivity. These issues include: low farm mechanization rates; poor infrastructure; lack of access of farmers to finance, poor agricultural extension services, security challenges, cattle herders, etc
If we are able to improve our productivity and reduce overall costs of production, we have to allow export of maize. It makes no economic sense to ban both the export & import of maize. If we produce enough quantities that meet international standards, we should export
to avoid saturating the local market and discouraging production.
Please feel free to share your thoughts
Drops mic
Please feel free to share your thoughts
Drops mic
