This triggers a question: the dominant historical/political/economic narrative is that scaling up drives power and prosperity on all fronts. Prime examples include (in no particular geographical order): the roman empire, USA, China, European Union (1/n) https://twitter.com/Roufmeister/status/1290939934715650048

But against these scaling up stories are the stories of small breakaway countries, which on the surface, had nothing or very little going for them, but became massive success stories, generating significant internal wealth and projecting disproportionate power (2/n)

Examples include (again, in no particular order): the Dutch Republic - ejected from the Spanish Empire to set up anew in a cold, swampy country, Israel - surrounded by hostile nations, now one of the most prosperous and technologically advanced countries in the region (3/n)

Taiwan, the Venetian republic. Others, which were possibly less successful (but held out for a respectable time): Romania under Ceaucescu, Yugoslavia before disintegration, South Africa with apartheid (4/n)

I am not taking an ideological position - I do not argue if these countries were "good" or "bad" (I am a remainer myself, believing in the advantages of scale and I do not want to write a justification for Israel's treatment of Palestinians),..(5/n)

But I think there are genuinely lessons to be learnt. some common threads among these examples: strong sense of identity and "us vs them", strong technocratic leadership, but not necessarily aligned to the scientific & technological consensus, ...(6/n)

Underestimated from the start, giving room to grow "under the radar"(?), opportunistic geopolitical alignment with the dominant superpowers, without giving up self-reliance, effective (not necessarily traditionally democratic) political institutions, fused with technocracy (7/n)

Has anyone ever attempted a systematic study? Probably needs a holistic approach across history, politics, geography and a few other dimension @nntaleb. @peterfrankopan @thehistoryguy . Any comments or book recommendations?