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1/10 Thread.
This piece by @CafeEconomics deals with a very important aspect of economic growth in countries like India.
While we fuss so much about the growth numbers here, what really drives high and sustained growth is the quality of our growth. https://www.livemint.com/opinion/columns/a-development-story-with-an-epilogue-yet-to-be-written-11596550246071.html
This piece by @CafeEconomics deals with a very important aspect of economic growth in countries like India.
While we fuss so much about the growth numbers here, what really drives high and sustained growth is the quality of our growth. https://www.livemint.com/opinion/columns/a-development-story-with-an-epilogue-yet-to-be-written-11596550246071.html
2/10
@CafeEconomics uses two measures of the quality of growth.
The first is the extent of structural transformation (move from traditional to non-traditional sectors).
The second is economic complexity (producing goods that many other countries cannot).
@CafeEconomics uses two measures of the quality of growth.
The first is the extent of structural transformation (move from traditional to non-traditional sectors).
The second is economic complexity (producing goods that many other countries cannot).
3/10
He shows that India has had mixed results in terms of the quality of our growth process.
While we have done quite well given our initial conditions at the eve of our independence, we lag behind a number of other developing countries.
He shows that India has had mixed results in terms of the quality of our growth process.
While we have done quite well given our initial conditions at the eve of our independence, we lag behind a number of other developing countries.
4/10
The piece also draws an important lesson from India’s economic history.
It is that policies and regimes that enable a country to achieve high-quality growth during one historical episode, may then go on to hinder any further improvements in this direction.
The piece also draws an important lesson from India’s economic history.
It is that policies and regimes that enable a country to achieve high-quality growth during one historical episode, may then go on to hinder any further improvements in this direction.
5/10
The title of this piece (A Development Story with an Epilogue Yet To Be Written) hints towards an interesting but unanswered question.
What are the possibilities of India attaining high-quality growth in the future?
The title of this piece (A Development Story with an Epilogue Yet To Be Written) hints towards an interesting but unanswered question.
What are the possibilities of India attaining high-quality growth in the future?
6/10
If high-quality growth is Structural Transformation, especially with Industrialization, what are India's chances of achieving this?
I have argued in a recent paper written with @saonray that there are three possibilities (thanks @CafeEconomics for the shout-out).
If high-quality growth is Structural Transformation, especially with Industrialization, what are India's chances of achieving this?
I have argued in a recent paper written with @saonray that there are three possibilities (thanks @CafeEconomics for the shout-out).
7/10
Possibility 1: If there is (i) low global growth/protectionist policies by western economies AND (ii) politics in India prevents supply-side reforms, then there is very limited possibility of enhancing the quality of growth in the current scenario.
Possibility 1: If there is (i) low global growth/protectionist policies by western economies AND (ii) politics in India prevents supply-side reforms, then there is very limited possibility of enhancing the quality of growth in the current scenario.
8/10
Possibility 2: If (i) world trade remains favourable to developing countries BUT (ii) politics prevents supply-side reforms, then India will move towards structural transformation that is mostly in services sectors, with limited scope for industrialization.
Possibility 2: If (i) world trade remains favourable to developing countries BUT (ii) politics prevents supply-side reforms, then India will move towards structural transformation that is mostly in services sectors, with limited scope for industrialization.
9/10
Possibility 3: If (i) world trade is favourable to developing countries AND (ii) politics does not derail a consensus on supply-side reforms, then India can achieve structural transformation with increasing shares of manufacturing industrialization.
Possibility 3: If (i) world trade is favourable to developing countries AND (ii) politics does not derail a consensus on supply-side reforms, then India can achieve structural transformation with increasing shares of manufacturing industrialization.
10/10
In a nutshell, both domestic politics (on supply-side reforms) and international politics (especially trade-related) will determine India's quality of growth, moving forward.
Here's a link to our paper.
Kuznets’ tension in India https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/kuznets%E2%80%99-tension-india via @UNUWIDER
In a nutshell, both domestic politics (on supply-side reforms) and international politics (especially trade-related) will determine India's quality of growth, moving forward.
Here's a link to our paper.
Kuznets’ tension in India https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/kuznets%E2%80%99-tension-india via @UNUWIDER
