1. Abiy and the TPLF engulfed themselves in a deadlock. For Aratkilo the TPLF leads the anti-reform forces by disseminating chaos. Logically, the TPLF should be the first to be hit, but until now Abiy has targeted other key opposition figures, i.e assistants given his narrative.

2. Abiy: “we will not go to war”. A wise decision given the balance of force and because a war could mark Ethiopia’s end. Or an admission of powerlessness? How long should Abiy be “patient until the people in the region understand and react accordingly," i.e. get rid of the TPLF?

3. Symmetrically, TPLF stated that “the parasitic PP clique”, engaged in “a dictatorial route”, “sales the country sovereignty” “instigates genocide calls”, “destroys the constitutional system” and “disintegrates the country”.

4. Thus, it won’t recognize the government and the Houses after September 1. But how could Aratkilo and Mekele find a way to simply coexist as long as the Tigreans wouldn’t overthrow the TPLF and the Front just doesn’t recognize Aratkilo power?

5. The Front had one exit door: to build a strong alliance with the other ethnic federalist forces. It could have been strong enough to push Abiy to engage in a national dialogue. TPLF repeatedly asked for. This failed. Abiy felt powerful enough to constantly refuse.

6. The alliance never arose. If the Oromo groups coalesce more or less, they never trusted the TPLF to join them. The main reason: it has never admitted that it mastered and was the main beneficiary of the authoritarian, centralised and oligarchic system they suffered from.