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Mini-thread:
Arizona *should* go smoothly on Election Day.
Why?
They’re trying.
Take Maricopa County (60% of AZ’s electorate):
-Mail ballots sent 4 wks before
-Early voting sites open 4 wks before
-Can vote at any site
-Can check online to verify county counted your ballot https://twitter.com/mattwargo/status/1290777475690254336
Arizona *should* go smoothly on Election Day.
Why?
They’re trying.
Take Maricopa County (60% of AZ’s electorate):
-Mail ballots sent 4 wks before
-Early voting sites open 4 wks before
-Can vote at any site
-Can check online to verify county counted your ballot https://twitter.com/mattwargo/status/1290777475690254336
Arizonans have increasingly turned to mail ballots over the last 25 years.
Percentage of Arizona Voters Using Mail-in Ballots:
2018: 78%
2016: 75%
2012: 66%
2008: 53%
2004: 40%
2000: 37%
1996: 14% https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290785997051969536?s=20
Percentage of Arizona Voters Using Mail-in Ballots:
2018: 78%
2016: 75%
2012: 66%
2008: 53%
2004: 40%
2000: 37%
1996: 14% https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290785997051969536?s=20
It's not just Democrats using mail-in ballots in Arizona.
Here's the Arizona 2016 breakdown.
***
Take Yavapai County, for example:
Trump won the county by 31.2%.
79.52% of Yavapai's voters used mail ballots to cast their votes.
https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290786775686840320?s=20
Here's the Arizona 2016 breakdown.
***
Take Yavapai County, for example:
Trump won the county by 31.2%.
79.52% of Yavapai's voters used mail ballots to cast their votes.
https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290786775686840320?s=20
We're talking about *rural* AZ voters that Trump needs.
Take Mohave County, Arizona -- it voted for Trump by 51% in 2016. It covers 13,400+ sq. miles. Trump needs to juice these rural, pro-Trump turnout numbers in 2020.
63% of them used mail ballots. https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290788273263194115?s=20
Take Mohave County, Arizona -- it voted for Trump by 51% in 2016. It covers 13,400+ sq. miles. Trump needs to juice these rural, pro-Trump turnout numbers in 2020.
63% of them used mail ballots. https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290788273263194115?s=20
I talked w/ multiple pro-Trump voters today at an urban Maricopa County polling site who don't trust mail-in system. Karen Baillie, here with a friend on oxygen, told me that's why they're voting in person.
Trump's margin for error here will be small. https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290789351153192961?s=20
Trump's margin for error here will be small. https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290789351153192961?s=20
Here's the extra layer that will take our attention:
AZ counties will begin counting mail-in ballots *14 days* before Election Day to ensure no significant logjam of uncounted ballots on E-Day.
Michigan & Pennsylvania? They'll begin counting THAT day. https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290790782073483264?s=20
AZ counties will begin counting mail-in ballots *14 days* before Election Day to ensure no significant logjam of uncounted ballots on E-Day.
Michigan & Pennsylvania? They'll begin counting THAT day. https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290790782073483264?s=20
In 2018, AZ counties were only allowed to count beginning that week ahead of election & they still had 600k+ uncounted ballots to go through after Election Day.
That's why it took Sinema *3 days* to jump McSally in the official ballot tabulation process. https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290793491837194242?s=20
That's why it took Sinema *3 days* to jump McSally in the official ballot tabulation process. https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290793491837194242?s=20
This is where heads could spin in the hours after Election Night 2020.
In #AZSEN 2018: About 600k early ballots had to be counted post-election (McSally held lead at this point).
But Sinema held greater share of support among mail-in voters.
https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290793952963067904?s=20
In #AZSEN 2018: About 600k early ballots had to be counted post-election (McSally held lead at this point).
But Sinema held greater share of support among mail-in voters.
https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290793952963067904?s=20
Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes says extended 14-day period ahead of E-Day to count mail ballots should leave Maricopa with few ballots to count post-Election Night 2020 compared to 2018.
But this could be what Michigan/Pennsylvania face in 2020:
https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290805798776582146?s=20
But this could be what Michigan/Pennsylvania face in 2020:
https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290805798776582146?s=20
This is also why those states' vote counts in days after Election Day 2020 could shift toward Biden -- if urban counties take longer to count.
In #AZSEN 2018, 75% of ballots left to count were from Maricopa -- but Maricopa equaled only 60% of state vote.
https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290807403588521985?s=20
In #AZSEN 2018, 75% of ballots left to count were from Maricopa -- but Maricopa equaled only 60% of state vote.
https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290807403588521985?s=20
Which is why Democrat Sinema overtook Republican McSally three days after Election Night.
If states like MI & PA don't begin counting early ballots until Election Day, it's hard not to see this playing out in 2020 -- but for the White House. https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290808529012625408?s=20
If states like MI & PA don't begin counting early ballots until Election Day, it's hard not to see this playing out in 2020 -- but for the White House. https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1290808529012625408?s=20
And for final kicks in the recalling of the 2018 #AZSEN race for potential 2020 purposes:
Sinema won among mail ballots by 3%.
McSally won polling site voters by 0.29%.
Of course, no evidence that "mail voters" wouldn't vote in person at same rate if mail option didn't exist.
Sinema won among mail ballots by 3%.
McSally won polling site voters by 0.29%.
Of course, no evidence that "mail voters" wouldn't vote in person at same rate if mail option didn't exist.
