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The most popular stats book in the 2nd half of 20th century was "How to Lie with Statistics".
The #COVID19 portion of Trump& #39;s @axios interview should be titled "How NOT to Lie with Statistics.
Here are 5 concrete takeaways for #DataScience. No cheap Trump-bashing.
(1/N)
The #COVID19 portion of Trump& #39;s @axios interview should be titled "How NOT to Lie with Statistics.
Here are 5 concrete takeaways for #DataScience. No cheap Trump-bashing.
(1/N)
1. Nice figures aren& #39;t sufficient to make a good argument.
Trump erred in bringing plots he couldn’t explain well. Data can& #39;t speak for itself. Visualizations can’t speak for the data. Visualizations only help humans speak for the data.
2/N
Trump erred in bringing plots he couldn’t explain well. Data can& #39;t speak for itself. Visualizations can’t speak for the data. Visualizations only help humans speak for the data.
2/N
2. Presentation matters.
The interview has cringe-tinged moments of an agitated POTUS shuffling through pieces of paper as camera struggles to get angle and Swan looks on, bemused.
Plastic sleeves would& #39;ve fixed that. As a born showman, he should& #39;ve anticipated this.
3/N
The interview has cringe-tinged moments of an agitated POTUS shuffling through pieces of paper as camera struggles to get angle and Swan looks on, bemused.
Plastic sleeves would& #39;ve fixed that. As a born showman, he should& #39;ve anticipated this.
3/N
3. Anticipate statistical counterarguments
Trump& #39;s focus on stats that look good for him is understandable. Getting caught off-guard by @jonathanvswan& #39;s focus on stats that make him look bad is not.
Especially when those stats hit hard. "I& #39;m talking about death!" said Swan.
4/N
Trump& #39;s focus on stats that look good for him is understandable. Getting caught off-guard by @jonathanvswan& #39;s focus on stats that make him look bad is not.
Especially when those stats hit hard. "I& #39;m talking about death!" said Swan.
4/N
My wife compared this to having a company all-hands meeting after a round of surprise layoffs. The CEO starts talking about how great things are, not mentioning layoffs. Someone asks, and the CEO is clearly unprepared to answer. That would be weird.
5/N
5/N
4. Causal inferences have to make sense
Trump focused on the death rate among test-positive cases in
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇸" title="Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Vereinigten Staaten">, saying it& #39;s better than https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇰🇷" title="Flagge von Südkorea" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Südkorea"> and https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇩🇪" title="Flagge von Deutschland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Deutschland">.
The implicit causal inference is his admin& #39;s policies are better at saving lives of the sick than those countries.
Implausible.
6/N
Trump focused on the death rate among test-positive cases in
The implicit causal inference is his admin& #39;s policies are better at saving lives of the sick than those countries.
Implausible.
6/N
5. Inferences should be consistent
POTUS pumps the lower mortality rate among test- positives.
He says it& #39;s because of more widespread testing.
But he also calls for less testing (b/c of absolute death stats?)
The stories you tell about the data should not conflict.
7/N
POTUS pumps the lower mortality rate among test- positives.
He says it& #39;s because of more widespread testing.
But he also calls for less testing (b/c of absolute death stats?)
The stories you tell about the data should not conflict.
7/N
Write-up: https://altdeep.substack.com/p/trump-shows-how-not-to-lie-with-statistics
Curious">https://altdeep.substack.com/p/trump-s... about #DataScience #Statistics and #epitwitter thoughts.
Let me know if you think I missed something, or forward this thread to a friend if you think they& #39;d have points/counterpoints.
Curious">https://altdeep.substack.com/p/trump-s... about #DataScience #Statistics and #epitwitter thoughts.
Let me know if you think I missed something, or forward this thread to a friend if you think they& #39;d have points/counterpoints.
Links to video at various time-stamps in the post.
