Thread by @lookoutitsbbear, what kinda fireworks are they making therehttps://twitter.com/slasher/status/1290680057699217409 here’s a fireworks factory in [...]

what kinda fireworks are they making there https://twitter.com/slasher/status/1290680057699217409

https://twitter.com/slasher/status/1290680057699217409

here’s a fireworks factory in China exploding

here’s another one

my skepticism here is that there is no residual visual fireworks display

this would require everything to explode at once, which isn’t impossible, but extremely improbable

there is a fireworks factory in Beruit apparently

but is it the same building?

the explosion is clearly next to the water, while the fireworks factory is not, so probably not

so what’s the building in front of it?

oh it’s the port silos that are 6km away

grain silo explosions can get pretty crazy but those silos don’t really look big enough for that size of an explosion

also what exploded wasn’t the silos, it was this building here

so what was in this building? Fertilizer? Fuel? A bomb?

¯\\_(ツ)_/¯

$grain silo explosions can get pretty crazy but those silos don’t really look big enough for that size of an explosionalso what exploded wasn’t the silos, it was this building hereso what was in this building? Fertilizer? Fuel? A bomb?¯\\_(ツ)_/¯$

now the red smoke does kind of fit with the fireworks angle, since it would have to be a specific substance to create colored smoke

what makes red smoke?

the M18 smoke grenades use 1-methylaminoanthraquinone

Strontium also burns red; it’s used in the production of fireworks

strontium-90 is only produced by nuclear fallout so it depends on what isotope is measured

so I guess if they wanted to pass off a small nuclear explosion as a fireworks factory explosion, that would be a decent cover story

but if it’s SR-90, there’s only one source

now of course this is all just me speculating, I’ve never been to Beruit

this video shows what appears to be fireworks going off before the explosion

https://twitter.com/krisus96/status/1290684087380959232?s=21 https://twitter.com/krisus96/status/1290684087380959232

https://twitter.com/krisus96/status/1290684087380959232?s=21

they could also be gunshots ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯

here’s a munitions depot in Syria exploding, still not getting the same shockwave

another theory is the fireworks combined with a grain silo explosion, creating a large thermobaric bomb

it’s a solid theory, let’s see

This is the MOAB, the most destructive non-nuclear weapon in the US arsenal

It has a blast energy of 46GJ, equivalent to 11 tons of TNT

still no visible shockwave tho, so we need something bigger

This explosion is allegedly a neutron bomb dropped in Yemen

now we’re getting the shockwave

A neutron bomb is a type of ERW (enhanced radiation weapon), which basically causes a small nuclear explosion (like the mini-nuke in Fallout)

Israel has been mass-producing neutron bombs since 1984

Other countries that possess neutron bombs are India, China, Russia, and the US; they can fit in artillery shells

This CIA report from 2000 describes a Russian subkiloton neutron bomb

https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/Doc_0001260463.pdf

however we clearly see cell phones recording during the explosion, which is evidence against the x-rays that typically occur according to the CIA

otoh it also says the device was “tailored” to produce this effect, which means it is possible that it could be tailored not to

Russia also created an even more powerful thermobaric weapon, the Tsar Bomba (father of all bombs)

here we see a comparable shockwave, although it appears to disappate more quickly than the Beruit explosion

so we have three possible causes, which can be narrowed down with more evidence:

1. the official story is true and fireworks combined with a flour silo to create a thermobaric explosion

I am skeptical of this because it looks like the silos were destroyed *in* the explosion

2. a thermobaric weapon was detonated in the port of Beruit

this would explain the silos being destroyed, but even the largest thermobaric weapon looks like a smaller explosion than what occurred

however it could just be a misleading perspective

3. A neutron bomb was detonated in the port of Beruit

this fits more with the visual effects of the explosion, but there is no obvious EMP effect from the X-rays typically generated during a nuclear explosion

the smoking gun for a neutron bomb would be evidence of strontium-90 on the ground, as it is only created as a byproduct of a nuclear reaction

so i guess look for that

gonna examine some other possible causes bc while I love conspiracy theories, I don’t love ones that are poorly researched

this is a chemical plant explosion in Texas, the blast was felt 4 miles away

gonna take a minute to see if I can get a radius

footage from the aftermath of the explosion, I am not sure how far away from the blast this is but it appears to be a bridge or maybe the highway

https://twitter.com/air_intel/status/1290678776557338626?s=21 https://twitter.com/air_intel/status/1290678776557338626

https://twitter.com/air_intel/status/1290678776557338626?s=21

virtually driving around highway 51 places that footage here, about 1.5km away

so we know there’s still a strong explosive force in a 1km radius

someone linked me this footage of a munitions dump in Syria exploding, this is definitely the kind of explosion we’re looking for

https://twitter.com/drinkingbigfoot/status/1290710540961144832?s=21 https://twitter.com/drinkingbigfoot/status/1290710540961144832

https://twitter.com/drinkingbigfoot/status/1290710540961144832?s=21

so what were they storing in Siberia?

a lot more than just “fireworks”

this base did explode for five hours tho, where as Beruit seems to have just exploded once

so now we do some boring ass math to determine how much energy needed to be released to blow stuff up 1.5km away

a neutron bomb has a maximum blast radius of 2km so that fits

a kiloton bomb has an energy potential of 4184GJ

here’s a grainy video of one

Here perspective fucks us up again, as the 1kT bomb looks huge but there’s nothing to really tell you how far away you are

It could look smaller or larger depending on the angle and the space, similar to how a 70” tv looks smaller in the store

also, these demo explosions are all talking place in a large open space, where as here there are buildings that could potentially amplify the pressure waves, although that wouldn’t explain the initial shockwave

In two days it will have been exactly 65 years since the first nuclear bomb was used against humans, dropped by the United States on Hiroshima, Japan

that was only a 14 kiloton bomb but the scale is logarithmic so while the number doesn’t look that much bigger it’s ^14, not +13

So obviously this explosion was not that powerful

I’m really just stalling for time here because I can’t remember how to apply E=MC^2 lol

anyway, this user makes a great point about the visible shockwave and possible grain silo explosion

they claim that the shockwave is a “vapor collar” caused by water vapor

https://twitter.com/djspeedycake/status/1290718048308142082?s=21 https://twitter.com/djspeedycake/status/1290718048308142082

https://twitter.com/djspeedycake/status/1290718048308142082?s=21

this is likely, they are right next to the water and it is hot in Lebanon so the odds of there being water vapor in that location is extremely high

also a themobaric explosion like the one that a grain silo would create certainly has that vacuum effect

let’s check the tape again

to my eyes, it appears that the silos are destroyed in the explosion, not the source of the explosion itself

the visible shockwave is definitely seawater vacuumed up from the port and expelled

https://twitter.com/lookoutitsbbear/status/1290692845729386497?s=21 https://twitter.com/lookoutitsbbear/status/1290692845729386497

https://twitter.com/lookoutitsbbear/status/1290692845729386497?s=21

so if we pause at the moment of the explosion we can get a better look at the flashpoint

it does appear to be away from the silos, or at least in front of it

we don’t know the amount of grain dust in the air, or the relative humidity

A dust explosion requires very dry stuff

looking at some other angles it is clear that the silos were destroyed by the explosion and the origin is the warehouse looking thing in front of it

there’s also some weird shit in the air shortly before the explosion

so now let’s check the news and see what the official explanations say

USA Today’s reporting seems to want to focus on the history of violence in Lebanon, and vastly underestimates the blast radius

the guardian has a report by the interior minister of Lebanon saying that ammonium nitrate was the cause

2 tons of ammonium nitrate were used by Timothy McVeigh in Oklahoma City, destroying the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building

obviously that was a much smaller explosion, so there would have had to have been a lot more than 2000 pounds of fertilizer stored in that warehouse

OSHA regulations in the states require a carefully calculated ventilation system, which uses this equation:

of course Lebanon probably has different safety standards

it still seems kind of foolish to store the fertilizer right next to the fireworks and the grain silos

otoh, industrial accidents are usually the result of stupid decisions

taking a side quest to follow this ammonium nitrate thread

reportedly it was confiscated from a boat in 2014 and stored in that warehouse for six years

ammonium nitrate has also been a favorite of hezbollah according to DNI

here’s a whole ass fertilizer plant exploding, the vantage point is 300 yards and the people filming were unharmed

keep in mind that the video of the Beruit aftermath was about 1500 yards away and destroyed the front of a building

the csb report on the West TX fertilizer plant estimates about 270 tons of fertilizer was involved in the explosion

the blast radius was about 1500-2000 feet

In Beruit, people were knocked over from more than a mile away, with far more buildings to slow down the force of the blast

csb estimates the blast force of the West TX explosion to be about 20-40 tons of TNT

if we assume a gain of 3 based on the increased blast radius, it gives us the ridiculous number of 8 kilotons, which tells me I probably used the wrong equation lol

8 kilotons would be just over half the power of the Hiroshima bomb

so the FOAB is just marginally bigger than the West TX explosion, here’s a size comparison next to a neutron bomb

the largest accidental explosion is larger than that, a 3kT explosion that occurred in Halifax

this happened in 1917 when a ship full of explosives hit another ship and exploded

so ammonium nitrate could be a logical explanation, depending on the amount that was being stored there

but it would have to be three times the amount stored at the fertilizer plant in west Texas

in 1947, 2200 tons of ammonium nitrate exploded in Texas City

it is considered the largest industrial accident in American history

the shot with the cars was taken 1/4 mile from the explosion

this is 3/4 of a mile from the Beruit explosion

lol idk man, it’s crazy shit

the prime minister’s office was damaged from 1 mile away, and he claims that those responsible will “pay for what happened”

which sounds a little more serious than an industrial accident but maybe he’s just like that

Saudi-owned al-Arabiya apparently saying the warehouse was an ammunition depot

https://twitter.com/michaeldickson/status/1290717531389427722?s=21 https://twitter.com/michaeldickson/status/1290717531389427722

https://twitter.com/michaeldickson/status/1290717531389427722?s=21

another angle of the aftermath

https://twitter.com/shadaomar/status/1290710419775029251?s=21 https://twitter.com/shadaomar/status/1290710419775029251

https://twitter.com/shadaomar/status/1290710419775029251?s=21

Jerusalem Post reports that Hezbollah denies it was an Israeli attack on a munitions depot, and also that the idea of fireworks was “ridiculous”, which it is

NBC News forgets to edit out the note from the editor

CNN reporting toxic gases

ran some simulations for explosion radius, it’s a nuclear explosion simulator so ignore the radiation zone

based on this I suppose 8 kT isn’t that unreasonable, since the light damage radius is about 2.35km, or 1.4 miles

in fact it might even be a conservative estimate bc of this reporting

to get a light damage radius of 10km I had to increase the payload to 100kt, which would make it 6 times larger than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima

that seems...a little extreme; so probably not accurate

Lebanon now reporting 2700 tons of ammonium nitrate exploded

For comparison, the West, TX explosion was 240 tons, so the explosion was 10x larger

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1290756966982119424?s=21 https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1290756966982119424

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1290756966982119424?s=21

if that explosion was 20-40 tons of force, that would put this explosion at 200-400T

but that seems low lol

The Texas City explosion involved 2300 tons so it’s a much better comparison

its energy was 2.7-3 kilotons

I should note that the Wikipedia entry doesn’t match the number listed by the US military report

we’re far into the speculative waters now, so it’s best to take all this next information as a possibility rather than a certainty

the story changed quickly from a fireworks explosion to a fertilizer explosion, this could be for a number of valid reasons

but those are boring

so let’s go back to the weird orange smoke

in fireworks production, reddish orange hues are created by strontium

strontium also occurs after nuclear explosions

ammonium produces a yellow flame

however brown/orange smoke could also indicate nitrogen dioxide, which is created in an ammonium nitrate fire

btw NO2 is toxic, so I hope nobody is trying to breathe it

https://twitter.com/naseebsherry/status/1290760669256716289?s=21 https://twitter.com/naseebsherry/status/1290760669256716289

https://twitter.com/naseebsherry/status/1290760669256716289?s=21

more evidence leading towards ammonium nitrate

https://twitter.com/quantian1/status/1290695231910875136?s=21 https://twitter.com/quantian1/status/1290695231910875136

https://twitter.com/quantian1/status/1290695231910875136?s=21

possible source of the ammonium nitrate leads to a Moldovian ship

https://twitter.com/hachemyassin/status/1290702640930791424?s=21 https://twitter.com/hachemyassin/status/1290702640930791424

https://twitter.com/hachemyassin/status/1290702640930791424?s=21

according to this website tho, the M/V Rhosus hasn’t been seen since 2009 and was last flying the flag of Panama

while this is strange, it’s possible the information is outdated

or it could have been hijacked by Moldovian pirates, idk

tbf, the piracy Moldova is most known for is the software kind

Baltic Shipping has a more detailed record of the ship’s history, it was built in 1986 in Japan and has changed hands a number of times

It has a deadweight tonnage of 3226 tons, meaning that the 2700 tons of ammonium nitrate was likely the only cargo it was carrying

this website claims that the crew of the ship was Russian and Ukrainian

https://www.fleetmon.com/maritime-news/2014/4194/crew-kept-hostages-floating-bomb-mv-rhosus-beirut/

is now that Russia is involved, we need to be very careful about what conclusions we jump to

there’s not a big online trail for Igor Grechushkin, and people love conspiracy theories about Russia

however, the idea that Russia planted a cargo ship full of ammonium nitrate in Beruit’s port for 6 years before deciding to blow it up should raise a number of questions

first of all, why would they do that

secondly, a series of incompetent events is much more plausible

But let’s assume Putin did it for some reason

Russia has cordial relations with Lebanon, so it makes no sense for them to pilot a giant bomb in the harbor

Lebanon recently defaulted on its debts in March

According to Hezbollah, which is now a major backer of the Lebanese government, Saudi pressure forced the previous PM to resign

Lebanese workers in the Gulf make up 1/5 of its GDP

Saudi Arabia was also the country that claimed the warehouse was a Hezbollah weapons storage facility

many conspiracy theorists believe that 9/11 was also secretly perpetrated by the Saudis, since 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudi citizens

Officially, Israel has no diplomatic relations with the Saudis

The ruler of Saudi Arabia is Mohammed bin Salman, who came to power after he purged the government of several members of the royal family, including longtime Clinton ally Prince Al Waleed bin Talal

he continues to detain anyone he sees as a threat to his power

as a side note, it was Al-Waleed’s imprisonment in the Ritz Carlton that allowed the Disney/Fox merger to go through, as he was forced to sell off a sizable portion of his holdings, including $1.5B of Fox shares

MbS also hangs out with the usual suspects

so I guess you have to consider who would benefit the most from an attack on Lebanon to decide if the explosion was intentional

the knowledge that thousands of tons of explosive fertilizer were supposedly sitting in the port of beruit has been floating around since 2014

anyone wanting to use that information would have known this, since it took me like 5 minutes to find

but who would use this information, and for what purpose

it really depends on what the investigation shows

it could very well likely be just a tragic industrial accident caused by a long string of incompetence and bad safety practices

there’s also all this other shit going on at the same time, and concern trolls in the states claim that the country is about to form an even stronger alliance with Iran

just yesterday, Israel was bitching about Hezbollah in Syria

ope, there’s your China square

of course none of these governments have taken responsibility for the explosion so rn the only thing we know for sure is that a roughly 3kT blast has decimated the Port of Beruit, cutting them off from any naval shipments

keep an eye on who says what

see this is how you’re supposed to research conspiracy theories, not just find some weirdo YouTube video that fits your confirmation bias

there are actors on the world stage that would benefit from this, but there’s no actual evidence (or negative evidence) linking them

“Negative evidence” is when a country’s official story is provably false, like in this example

btw I have a slight correction, it’s almost the 75th year since Hiroshima, not the 65th year

I temporarily forgot how to add ¯\\_(ツ)_/¯

one last thing about the blast itself I was thinking about, the chemistry peeps I retweeted earlier said something about the explosive velocity of ammonium nitrate as 2700m/s

neutrons propagate in fission at between 2000-5000m/s

the implosion from a nuclear reaction is created after the air comes into contact with the fissioned core

it instantly ionizes, which sucks everything in before expelling it back out at tremendous force

so the thing that sticks in the back of my mind is that yes, it is most likely exactly what it has been reported to be

however, that thing just happens to have all of the same properties as a nuclear explosion of the same size

I seem to have slipped into the pool

Italy radiation monitors go off after explosion

https://twitter.com/liguresambrones/status/1290734089021132802?s=21 https://twitter.com/liguresambrones/status/1290734089021132802

https://twitter.com/liguresambrones/status/1290734089021132802?s=21

however some guy at a hospital says nah

https://twitter.com/romain_tronc/status/1290722674092769280?s=21 https://twitter.com/romain_tronc/status/1290722674092769280

https://twitter.com/romain_tronc/status/1290722674092769280?s=21

also this person rightly points out that the spike in radiation happened four hours before the explosion

https://twitter.com/astrosven/status/1290791143408578561?s=21 https://twitter.com/astrosven/status/1290791143408578561

https://twitter.com/astrosven/status/1290791143408578561?s=21

and again, there was no EMP effect that knocked out power

last year, the us introduced the “nuclear weapon you can use,” the W76-2, a 5kT warhead that can be fired from 7500 miles away

https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/mini-nukes-nuclear-weapons-trump-war/

that is the most robocop-ass shit I’ve ever heard irl

also this is probably unrelated but about 3 hours ago CNN felt like dropping this story https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/04/asia/un-north-korea-nukes-report-intl/index.html

North Korea working on 'miniaturized' nuclear devices: UN report

North Korea is continuing work on its nuclear program and several countries believe Pyongyang has made gains in producing ballistic missiles with small nuclear devices attached, according to a...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/04/asia/un-north-korea-nukes-report-intl/index.html

so if you wanted to be cynical there’s a remote possibility that this is a long con to manufacture consent to attack someone for their dangerous weapons of mass destruction

you could even make wild claims like the US was showing off their latest weapon for sale while simultaneously providing a distraction from the pandemic and 30 million people about to be homeless by starting a giant war

but again, the official story is that some fertilizer in a warehouse blew up

what’s the White House’s statement?

oh ok

just real quick want to add a little bit about the president's response and how America has been doing this thing lately

here we have trump saying the explosion was "a bomb of some kind" https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1290778973060894720?s=20

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1290778973060894720?s=20

but later three random defense officials say that's not true https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1290816143029149696?s=20

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1290816143029149696?s=20

this kind of dual information has become a habit for this administration

it allows for people to pick whichever information they like and run with it

for trump supporters, it just means more undermining of the president

for the rest, it's another case of him lying

now imagine you live somewhere else in the world where they might not be broadcasting every weird thing the president said today

this must be extremely confusing

it doesn't help that the actual quote contains enough vague language that it could be interpreted either way

"looks like a terrible attack" is not exactly as explicit as "it *was* a terrible attack"

objectively, it does have the *appearance* of an attack, as many people (including myself) have pointed out

but as the president of the US, mentioning that generally infers that it *was* an attack, because why bring it up otherwise

otoh this is a bit more explicit

so in effect, the government has placed a hedged bet and taken both positions; a sort of schrodinger's cat situation where it could be an attack depending on who you ask

so lets ask some people

Vice News' fact checkers conclude that it was ammonium nitrate as reported

they make sure to mention "conspiracy theorists" in the headline https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/7kpdxz/conspiracy-theorists-adamantly-insist-beirut-explosion-was-a-nuke-it-wasnt?utm_content=1596564198&utm_medium=social&utm_source=VICE_twitter

Conspiracy Theorists Adamantly Insist Beirut Explosion Was a Nuke (It Wasn’t)

“It's not a nuke. Not even a small one.”

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/7kpdxz/conspiracy-theorists-adamantly-insist-beirut-explosion-was-a-nuke-it-wasnt?utm_content=1596564198&utm_medium=social&utm_source=VICE_twitter

their reasoning however is a little flimsy, since we already know that 3-5kT nuclear weapons have been around for a few decades now

this guy says that even small nuclear explosions start with white/yellow explosions

he seems pretty upset

so people really want to you know that it was definitely not a nuclear blast, and that only conspiracy theorists would believe it's a nuclear blast

this usually just upsets conspiracy theorists as they assume the passionate denial itself is suspect

why bring it up otherwise?

anyway here's a story from march about how some guy in washington thinks it would be cool if israel started using low-yield "tactical" nukes to take out targets in Iran

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nuclear-iran-israel-nukes/israel-could-use-tactical-nukes-on-iran-thinktank-idUSTRE62P1LH20100326

Iran has also been experiencing attacks on its nuclear site by a group who is either an extremist group or a proxy of another nation

https://www.fr24news.com/a/2020/07/iran-explodes-what-is-hidden-behind-mysterious-attacks-on-key-sites.html

A UN report released yesterday says that the odds of North Korea possessing miniature nuclear weapons is high https://parstoday.com/en/news/world-i124815-north_korea_likely_developed_miniature_nuclear_devices_fitting_into_ballistic_warheads_un_report

North Korea likely developed miniature nuclear devices fitting into ballistic warheads: UN report

A confidential United Nations (UN) report purportedly says several countries believe that North Korea may have developed “miniaturized nuclear devices to f...

https://parstoday.com/en/news/world-i124815-north_korea_likely_developed_miniature_nuclear_devices_fitting_into_ballistic_warheads_un_report

idk what the relationship between NK and Lebanon is like, but Lebanon is friendly with both Iran and Russia, who are allies of North Korea along with China

so it would make no sense for any of these countries to attack lebanon with a tiny nuclear bomb

aerial photos of beirut reveal that the warehouse is gone and so is the land it was sitting on https://twitter.com/PsychologyDoc/status/1290912643973349377?s=20

https://twitter.com/PsychologyDoc/status/1290912643973349377?s=20

there are reports of a citywide power outage https://twitter.com/Sotiridi1/status/1290767922596655105?s=20

https://twitter.com/Sotiridi1/status/1290767922596655105?s=20

now while it's true that a power outage would be a sign of EMP damage, it's also true that Beirut has power outages all the time due to underfunded infrastructure

here's a video of a scalar weapon, which either warps reality or the video is messed up https://twitter.com/Stupido_Bot1/status/1290845824918806529?s=20

https://twitter.com/Stupido_Bot1/status/1290845824918806529?s=20

scalar weapons are a hypothetical weapon first theorized by nikola tesla; basically the quintessential death ray

they sound more like bad science fiction

apparently they were interesting enough to pursue/waste tax dollars on but i still say they sound made up

https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP96-00792R000500240001-6.pdf

here's another thing from the 80s

https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP96-00788R001900680014-4.pdf

btw just because these things are hosted on the cia website doesn't mean they're 100% true, they have a bunch of conspiracy magazines and stuff in there

energy weapons do definitely exist tho

¯\\_(ツ)_/¯

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