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If I'm a Tesla investor, I'm wondering why the once-Tesla crazy Norwegian market has completely turned on what used to be its top brand. There's a bunch of evidence that suggests quality and service shortcomings are no longer tolerated once competition becomes available. https://twitter.com/EVAdoptionTweet/status/1290526600228823040
A lot of people used to call Norway's market "the canary in the coalmine," implying that Tesla would be the inevitable winner as markets shift toward EVs. If that view is correct, this is strong evidence that Tesla's runaway success will come to an end as EV markets mature.
The logic holds up well: Tesla's are pricey, powerful and prestigious but come with some quality and service shortcomings that early adopters happily overlook but as markets mature, consumer behavior tends to revert to more pragmatic values. Looks like that's what we're seeing.
I should note that I'm open to other theories! Also, I've never called Norway "the canary in the coalmine" because it's a unique market in a lot of ways. I just don't see any good explanations of how/why a market dominated by Tesla shifted away from them so dramatically.
Also, I'm not just looking at one month here. Year-To-Date figures don't fundamentally change the picture, but take a look for yourself here: https://insideevs.com/news/437300/norway-plugin-sales-july-2020/
I'm shocked, SHOCKED, that a leading Tesla investor account would rather attack me (as if I'm somehow responsible for these statistics) than explain what's actually happening in Norway. Why would someone want to know the truth, when the data can be simply waved away?
The argument that data is being cherry-picked just doesn't hold up to the slightest scrutiny. Here are the top-selling EVs in Norway of all time: Model S is still #4 & X is #6, despite selling just a combined 307 units so far this year. Via: https://elbilstatistikk.no/
Just to wrap this up (I did not expect the response this received) the consensus from Tesla bulls seems to be: there is no reduction in demand for Teslas in Norway, Tesla simply isn't filling orders there. I'd find that more convincing absent evidence of burned-out owners.
But don't take my word for it: look at the market share data going back years, and read the Norwegian Tesla forums. If you really do that diligence I find it's hard to dismiss the possibility of reduced demand due to service/quality shortcomings completely out of hand. YMMV.
