Ok...So this is conventional criminological wisdom but the story on the ground is more complicated. Property crime has not gone down over the last twenty years. It has just moved online. The U.S. largely does not measure online crime in any meaningful way 1/x https://twitter.com/maggiekb1/status/1290281476324458496

@rossjanderson talked about this in 2017: https://www.edge.org/conversation/ross_anderson-the-threat In the UK, Anderson et al found that when crime victimization surveys were evaluated for 2018, approximately half of all property crime is internet/online base taking into account reported victimizations. 2/x

There is no reason to think the situation in the U.S. is much different. As @zcobb pointed out in Advancing Accurate and Objective Cybercrime Metrics. Journal of National Security Law and Policy UCR/NIBRS data currently is woefully inadequate. NCVS only captures ID theft 3/x

Even if one only looks at ID theft @zcobb found:
“In 2016, identity theft cost Americans $17 billion in 2016, possibly more than losses due to household burglary, motor vehicle theft, and property theft combined…also noting that also highlights some potential limitations of 4/x

victim surveys as a source of crime metrics. For a start, that report was not published until January of 2019, even though everyone knows that one of the most notable characteristics of cybercrime is the speed at which it evolves.” 5x

And as @MiekeEoyang et al of @ThirdWayNatSec found 1% of cyber criminals are arrested which translates into approximately 3 arrests for every 1000 reported cybercrime incidents compared to clearance rates of 18% for other property crime and 46 % for violent crime. 6/x

They also that according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) that it only based only 9 cases on FBI Internet Crime Compliant Center data even they received 298,728 complaints. This year the internet crime complaint center has set a complaint record 7/x

The details of the complaints are staggering 8/x: https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/fbi-sees-surge-in-online-shopping-scams-ftc-says-most-reports-ever/

So back to the UCR/NIBRS/NCVS as detailed by @zcobb Businesses as victims are largely left out of the equation when official crime statistics are complied. Even when the switch is made to NIBRS only a fraction of agencies are ready to capture all of the new victim/crime info 9/x

Property crime has not gone down. We just don't count it where it lives. Notably there was not one mention of digital/cyber crime in the story and even the picture of sneaking burglar fails to capture the current reality 10/EOT