Read on Twitter
<thread>
0/
Important article
“‘The Biggest Monster’ Is Spreading. And It’s Not the Coronavirus” —NY Times https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/health/coronavirus-tuberculosis-aids-malaria.html
0/
Important article “‘The Biggest Monster’ Is Spreading. And It’s Not the Coronavirus” —NY Times https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/health/coronavirus-tuberculosis-aids-malaria.html
1/
Fear-induced hysteria pushed the world into mass psychosis in March, and it should have been obvious that we were going to profoundly break things.
We did.
This NY Times article showcases just one dark side. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1288578534722744320?s=20
Fear-induced hysteria pushed the world into mass psychosis in March, and it should have been obvious that we were going to profoundly break things.
We did.
This NY Times article showcases just one dark side. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1288578534722744320?s=20
This thread merely pulls many useful excerpts from The NY Times article, because it’s partially behind a wall.
“Tuberculosis kills 1.5 million people each year. Lockdowns and supply-chain disruptions threaten progress against the disease as well as H.I.V. and malaria.”
“Tuberculosis kills 1.5 million people each year. Lockdowns and supply-chain disruptions threaten progress against the disease as well as H.I.V. and malaria.”
3/
“TB and its deadly allies, H.I.V. and malaria, were on the run. Yet now, as the coronavirus pandemic spreads around the world, consuming global health resources, these perennially neglected adversaries are making a comeback.
“TB and its deadly allies, H.I.V. and malaria, were on the run. Yet now, as the coronavirus pandemic spreads around the world, consuming global health resources, these perennially neglected adversaries are making a comeback.
4/
“Covid-19 risks derailing all our efforts and taking us back to where we were 20 years ago,” said Dr. Pedro L. Alonso, the director of the World Health Organization’s global malaria program.”
“Covid-19 risks derailing all our efforts and taking us back to where we were 20 years ago,” said Dr. Pedro L. Alonso, the director of the World Health Organization’s global malaria program.”
5/
“The lockdowns, particularly across parts of Africa, Asia & Latin America, have raised insurmountable barriers to patients who must travel to obtain diagnoses or drugs, according to interviews with more than two dozen public health officials, doctors and patients worldwide.”
“The lockdowns, particularly across parts of Africa, Asia & Latin America, have raised insurmountable barriers to patients who must travel to obtain diagnoses or drugs, according to interviews with more than two dozen public health officials, doctors and patients worldwide.”
6/
“Fear of the coronavirus and the shuttering of clinics have kept away many patients struggling with H.I.V., TB and malaria, while restrictions on air and sea travel have severely limited delivery of medications to the hardest-hit regions.”
“Fear of the coronavirus and the shuttering of clinics have kept away many patients struggling with H.I.V., TB and malaria, while restrictions on air and sea travel have severely limited delivery of medications to the hardest-hit regions.”
7/
“About 80 percent of tuberculosis, H.I.V. and malaria programs worldwide have reported disruptions in services, and one in four people living with H.I.V. have reported problems with gaining access to medications, according to U.N. AIDS.”
“About 80 percent of tuberculosis, H.I.V. and malaria programs worldwide have reported disruptions in services, and one in four people living with H.I.V. have reported problems with gaining access to medications, according to U.N. AIDS.”
8/
“In India, home to about 27 percent of the world’s TB cases, diagnoses have dropped by nearly 75 percent since the pandemic began. In Russia, H.I.V. clinics have been repurposed for coronavirus testing.”
“In India, home to about 27 percent of the world’s TB cases, diagnoses have dropped by nearly 75 percent since the pandemic began. In Russia, H.I.V. clinics have been repurposed for coronavirus testing.”
9/
“Malaria season has begun in West Africa, which has 90 percent of malaria deaths in the world, but the normal strategies for prevention — distribution of insecticide-treated bed nets and spraying with pesticides — have been curtailed because of lockdowns.”
“Malaria season has begun in West Africa, which has 90 percent of malaria deaths in the world, but the normal strategies for prevention — distribution of insecticide-treated bed nets and spraying with pesticides — have been curtailed because of lockdowns.”
10/
“A three-month lockdown across different parts of the world and a gradual return to normal over 10 months could result in an additional 6.3 million cases of tuberculosis and 1.4 million deaths from it.”
“A three-month lockdown across different parts of the world and a gradual return to normal over 10 months could result in an additional 6.3 million cases of tuberculosis and 1.4 million deaths from it.”
11/
“A six-month disruption of antiretroviral therapy may lead to more than 500,000 additional deaths from illnesses related to H.I.V., according to W.H.O. Another model by W.H.O. predicted that in the worst-case scenario, deaths from malaria could double to 770,000 per year.
“A six-month disruption of antiretroviral therapy may lead to more than 500,000 additional deaths from illnesses related to H.I.V., according to W.H.O. Another model by W.H.O. predicted that in the worst-case scenario, deaths from malaria could double to 770,000 per year.
12/
“Several public health experts, some close to tears, warned that if the current trends continue, the coronavirus is likely to set back years, perhaps decades, of painstaking progress against TB, H.I.V. and malaria.”
“Several public health experts, some close to tears, warned that if the current trends continue, the coronavirus is likely to set back years, perhaps decades, of painstaking progress against TB, H.I.V. and malaria.”
13/
“The infrastructure built to diagnose H.I.V. and TB has been a boon for many countries grappling with the coronavirus. GeneXpert, the tool used to detect genetic material from the TB bacteria and from H.I.V., can also amplify RNA from the coronavirus for diagnosis.”
“The infrastructure built to diagnose H.I.V. and TB has been a boon for many countries grappling with the coronavirus. GeneXpert, the tool used to detect genetic material from the TB bacteria and from H.I.V., can also amplify RNA from the coronavirus for diagnosis.”
14/
“But now most clinics are using the machines only to look for the coronavirus. Prioritizing the coronavirus over T.B. is “very stupid from a public health perspective,” Dr. Ditiu said.”
“But now most clinics are using the machines only to look for the coronavirus. Prioritizing the coronavirus over T.B. is “very stupid from a public health perspective,” Dr. Ditiu said.”
15/
“In country after country, the pandemic has resulted in sharp drops in diagnoses of TB: a 70 percent decline in Indonesia, 50 percent in Mozambique and South Africa, and 20 percent in China, according to the W.H.O.”
“In country after country, the pandemic has resulted in sharp drops in diagnoses of TB: a 70 percent decline in Indonesia, 50 percent in Mozambique and South Africa, and 20 percent in China, according to the W.H.O.”
16/
“In late May in Mexico, as coronavirus infections climbed, TB diagnoses recorded by the government fell to 263 cases from 1,097 the same week last year.”
“In late May in Mexico, as coronavirus infections climbed, TB diagnoses recorded by the government fell to 263 cases from 1,097 the same week last year.”
17/
“Nobody is testing for TB at any facility,” he said. “The mind of clinicians in Mexico, as well as decision makers, is stuck with Covid-19.”
“Nobody is testing for TB at any facility,” he said. “The mind of clinicians in Mexico, as well as decision makers, is stuck with Covid-19.”
18/ [DEVIL YOU KNOW]
“TB is the biggest monster of them all. If we’re talking about deaths and pandemics, 10 million cases a year,” he said, Covid doesn’t compare yet to that toll.
“TB is the biggest monster of them all. If we’re talking about deaths and pandemics, 10 million cases a year,” he said, Covid doesn’t compare yet to that toll.
19/
“India went into lockdown on March 24, and the government directed public hospitals to focus on Covid-19. Many hospitals shuttered outpatient services for other diseases.”
“India went into lockdown on March 24, and the government directed public hospitals to focus on Covid-19. Many hospitals shuttered outpatient services for other diseases.”
20/
“The impact on TB diagnoses was immediate: The number of new cases recorded by the Indian government between March 25 and June 19 was 60,486, compared with 179,792 during the same period in 2019.”
“The impact on TB diagnoses was immediate: The number of new cases recorded by the Indian government between March 25 and June 19 was 60,486, compared with 179,792 during the same period in 2019.”
21/
“The pandemic is also shrinking the supply of diagnostic tests for these killers as companies turn to making more expensive tests to detect the coronavirus. Cepheid, the California-based manufacturer of TB diagnostic tests, has pivoted to making tests for the coronavirus.”
“The pandemic is also shrinking the supply of diagnostic tests for these killers as companies turn to making more expensive tests to detect the coronavirus. Cepheid, the California-based manufacturer of TB diagnostic tests, has pivoted to making tests for the coronavirus.”
22/
“Companies that make diagnostic tests for malaria are doing the same, according to Dr. Catharina Boehme, the chief executive of the Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics.”
“Companies that make diagnostic tests for malaria are doing the same, according to Dr. Catharina Boehme, the chief executive of the Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics.”
23/
“Coronavirus tests are much more lucrative, at about $10, compared with 18 cents for a rapid malaria test.”
“Coronavirus tests are much more lucrative, at about $10, compared with 18 cents for a rapid malaria test.”
24/
These companies “have tremendous demand for Covid right now,” said Dr. Madhukar Pai, the director of the McGill International TB Centre in Montreal. “I can’t imagine diseases of poverty getting any attention in this space.”
These companies “have tremendous demand for Covid right now,” said Dr. Madhukar Pai, the director of the McGill International TB Centre in Montreal. “I can’t imagine diseases of poverty getting any attention in this space.”
25/
“The pandemic [policies] have hindered the availability of drugs for H.I.V., TB and malaria worldwide by interrupting supply chains, diverting manufacturing capacity and imposing physical barriers for patients who must travel to distant clinics to pick up the medications.”
“The pandemic [policies] have hindered the availability of drugs for H.I.V., TB and malaria worldwide by interrupting supply chains, diverting manufacturing capacity and imposing physical barriers for patients who must travel to distant clinics to pick up the medications.”
26/
“The pandemic has severely restricted international transport, hindering the availability not just of chemical ingredients and raw materials, but also of packaging supplies.”
“The pandemic has severely restricted international transport, hindering the availability not just of chemical ingredients and raw materials, but also of packaging supplies.”
27/
“The disruption of supply chains is really something that worries me — for H.I.V., for TB, for malaria,” said Dr. Carlos del Rio, chair of the scientific advisory board of the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.
“The disruption of supply chains is really something that worries me — for H.I.V., for TB, for malaria,” said Dr. Carlos del Rio, chair of the scientific advisory board of the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.
28/
While fear-induced hysteria is the ultimate cause, the more proximal cause was draconian lockdown policies... https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1254796958964858882?s=20
While fear-induced hysteria is the ultimate cause, the more proximal cause was draconian lockdown policies... https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1254796958964858882?s=20
29/
Little to no thought was given to the health consequences to devastated economies. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1254798763383808015?s=20
Little to no thought was given to the health consequences to devastated economies. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1254798763383808015?s=20
30/
Nor to how shutdowns and fear (often promoted with intent) deter patients from seeking medical attention. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1254798847685115904?s=20
Nor to how shutdowns and fear (often promoted with intent) deter patients from seeking medical attention. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1254798847685115904?s=20
31/
We must be more cognizant that any seemingly common sensical COVID mitigation has many potential down sides that must be weighed.
(Even setting aside the most important issue of whether the state has the right to suspend civil liberties in the first place.)
We must be more cognizant that any seemingly common sensical COVID mitigation has many potential down sides that must be weighed.
(Even setting aside the most important issue of whether the state has the right to suspend civil liberties in the first place.)
32/
Masks, too, have hosts of consequences for health and psychology, almost all ignored. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1288578534722744320?s=20
Masks, too, have hosts of consequences for health and psychology, almost all ignored. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1288578534722744320?s=20
33/
Psychologically, fear of infection is probably one large source of the hysteria. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1278886858337013760?s=20
Psychologically, fear of infection is probably one large source of the hysteria. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1278886858337013760?s=20
34/
But the other psychological problem that keeps us in this is the Illusion of Control. We have an innate tendency to believe our actions explain all the variability in infection. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1281671749667610625?s=20
But the other psychological problem that keeps us in this is the Illusion of Control. We have an innate tendency to believe our actions explain all the variability in infection. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1281671749667610625?s=20
35/
In reality, this Rule of Thumb is much closer to the truth. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1284915812772589571?s=20
In reality, this Rule of Thumb is much closer to the truth. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1284915812772589571?s=20
36/ END
Not only can utility calculations not be done if they don’t consider all the consequences, but one has to keep COVID in proportion, not possible in hysteria.
Like... that tuberculosis kills 1.5 million people each year. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1254798847685115904?s=20
Not only can utility calculations not be done if they don’t consider all the consequences, but one has to keep COVID in proportion, not possible in hysteria.
Like... that tuberculosis kills 1.5 million people each year. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1254798847685115904?s=20
The subtweet in the second tweet in this thread (labeled “1”) should have been this: https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1239995212572876802?s=20
