Don't overthink it -- this year's Darren Waller is Dallas Goedert.

Here's a thread. https://twitter.com/FfStalder/status/1290310081817518081

1. Goedert is right in Waller's old price range:
a. Darren Waller's 2019 ADP: TE15.
b. Dallas Goedert's 2020 ADP: TE15.

2. Waller's TE3 finish depended upon his high reception/target volume. He earned 117 targets (24th most) and 90 catches (11th).

Goedert is set up for tons of volume:
a. He had 87 targets (58th) and 58 catches (52nd).
b. Philly TEs totaled 235 targets (1st) and 155 catches (1st).

3. Waller's saw more volume because of an unimpressive receiving corps.

The Eagles are also lacking at WR:
a) Alshon is on PUP.
b) Goodwin opted out.
c) DJax is coming off an injury.
d) Their next three guys -- Reagor, Hightower, and Watkins -- are all rookies w/o a preseason.

4. Waller's performance also depended upon his quarterback's accuracy. Carr had a 78.6% true completion percentage (TCP) with the ninth most efficient supporting cast.

Wentz posted a 68.2% TCP with the eleventh-worst supporting cast. He had a 74.2% TCP in 2018.

5. The biggest difference between Waller and Goedert is that Waller is the starter while Goedert is not.

That's the wrong way to think about it.

Goedert finished as 2019's TE10 as a second-string TE. What would happen if Ertz missed any time?

6. Goedert might be easier to get in redraft, but you should still try to get him in dynasty if you can. https://www.fantasypros.com/2020/07/recommended-dynasty-trade-proposals-for-july-tight-ends-2020-fantasy-football/